It doesn't come as a major surprise that Ashleigh Barty finds herself in the Wimbledon final. She has a game well-suited to thrive on grass.
But so does Karolina Pliskova, who has one of the most dangerous serves of anyone on tour. And if she is on her game Saturday, it's anyone's call who will walk away from the All England Club as the champion.
What are the keys? How will this one play out?
WTA writers Alex Macpherson and Courtney Nguyen make their case for both players.
Advantage, Barty
Last year, Ashleigh Barty did something unusual. She admitted how much she wanted to win Wimbledon.
It was a comment made in a domestic interview with ABC News and wasn't widely picked up on until the lead-up to this year's tournament -- where she repeated the sentiment.
"One day I would love to be the champion here," she said. "It's a dream. It's a goal."
That was a departure for her. During Barty's reign as World No.1, which has lasted since September 2019, she has perfected the art of the level-headed answer. Headline-grabbing quotes about aspiring to greatness or aiming for records are not for her. Instead, Barty talks about the process of preparation and of competing in careful detail, and continually emphasizes that there are many more important things in life than winning or losing.
It's eminently sensible stuff, and is key to why she has been so successful at the top of the rankings. Wimbledon marks her eighth final since ascending to the summit, and she has converted five of those into titles, including three this year, in Melbourne, Miami and Stuttgart. But there's also been a touch of the defense mechanism about it -- a (perfectly reasonable) means of avoiding the media pressure that contributed to her hiatus from the sport as a teenager.
Barty says that admitting -- to herself and to the world -- that she dreams big is an act of bravery. "It took a long time for me to have the courage to say that out loud," she told ABC News. She's aware that stating a goal bigger than match process means risking success or failure in the outcome.
To achieve it, Barty said after defeating Angelique Kerber in the semifinals, she needed to go further back -- to her childhood.
Head to Head
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"When you're a kid, the possibilities in your mind are endless," she told the press. I think as you kind of get older, get more experienced, obviously with that you know there's a lot more that comes with it. It's almost not just a pipe dream; it could be a reality. I think it's just about going out there and remembering how you felt as a kid, that there was the enjoyment, there was the freedom just to go out there and kind of try and do what you can."
There are other layers to Barty's courage in owning her dreams this year. She came into Wimbledon with no grass-court tournament preparation. She was last seen limping off the court at Roland Garros after retiring from her second round with a hip injury. The 50th anniversary of Evonne Goolagong Cawley's first Wimbledon title is another wrinkle of pressure.
But while Barty's level was scratchy in her first few rounds, she has been tapering her form superbly. Her semifinal against Kerber was near flawless. She will face an opponent in Karolina Pliskova whom she has beaten five times in seven encounters, including the past three dating back to 2018. In their recent matches, the multifaceted nature of Barty's game has been a key factor, and she will be allying that to a drive and determination she's not afraid to show the world any more. -- Alex Macpherson
Advantage, Pliskova
Among the accomplished semifinalists at Wimbledon, which included the current No.1, a future hall-of-famer and the No.2 seed, it was Karolina Pliskova who has tallied more titles in her career (16) than the other three. Since the start of 2015, Pliskova has won more matches on tour than anyone. Until last week, she had the second-longest active streak in the Top 10, a run of 230 consecutive weeks that was only bettered by Simona Halep.
Yet Pliskova came into Wimbledon well under the radar. Despite her tour-level success on grass -- she is a two-time champion in Eastbourne -- Wimbledon had become her worst Slam. It was the only major at which she had failed to reach a quarterfinal. It became a running joke with the affable Czech, whose poker face demeanor belies a biting, self-deprecating sense of humor.
"It's tough because everybody thinks I have the perfect game for grass," Pliskova said three years ago. "But I think the only problem with me on the grass is that I'm still not able to go a little bit down in the knees. Maybe a few shots I'm able to do it but not the whole match and not maybe the important points."
Yet, there was Pliskova on Thursday, scraping her knees to the grass to get down low to absorb the incredible pace and power sent her way by Aryna Sabalenka. Always quick to tell reporters how negative she can get in matches, she shrugged off a double-fault to lose the first set -- it turned out to be her only break point of the match -- to come back and earn her first career win over the big-hitting Sabalenka.
To make her second major final (2016 US Open), Pliskova has been lights out at the service line. The one shot she could rely on, her serve, had abandoned her for much of the 2021 season, yet she has been broken just four times across six matches during the fortnight. Against Sabalenka, who came into the semifinal averaging nearly five breaks per match, Pliskova held her to one.
In Pliskova's last meeting against Barty, in April in Stuttgart, the Czech came within two points of the win before Barty manufactured a 2-6, 6-1, 7-5 win en route to the title. Pliskova's last win over Barty came in straight sets at the 2018 US Open, and she won their only tour-level meeting on grass, which came at the start of Barty's return to tennis at 2016 Nottingham. Pliskova won in two tiebreaks.
To beat Barty, Pliskova needs to roll through her service games like she's been doing all tournament and to keep the scoreboard pressure on the Australian. Barty has been broken 11 times in the tournament, nearly three times Pliskova's rate. The biggest challenge for Pliskova and her coach, Sascha Bajin, will be coming up with a game plan to neutralize Barty's biting backhand slice.
The final key will be to set aside any mental baggage Pliskova carries from her three straight losses to Barty. The two are good friends and have immense respect for each other, as people and as competitors. Pliskova will need to check that respect at the door.
"So far my second [Slam] final, second time I'm playing against [the] No.1," Pliskova said with a wry smile. "But I think it can't be any better than that. You want to play the best player in the final. Of course, I don't want anybody else but her there." -- Courtney Nguyen
