The BNP Paribas Open field has been whittled down to the last eight, and it's an intriguing mix of big names delivering their best performances in a while and rising players in the form of their lives.
Coco Gauff and Maria Sakkari are back in form after a February dip, while Marta Kostyuk, Yuan Yue and Emma Navarro are all making a strong case for hitting a new level this year. And then there's a marquee matchup between reigning World No.1 Iga Swiatek and former No.1 Caroline Wozniacki, nearly five years after the first time they crossed paths.
[1] Iga Swiatek (POL) vs. [WC] Caroline Wozniacki (DEN)
The only previous meeting between Iga Swiatek and Caroline Wozniacki came in the second round of Toronto back in 2019. Swiatek had made her WTA main-draw debut seven months previously. Five months later, Wozniacki would retire for the first time. Though Wozniacki was the Top 20 player at the time and Swiatek a brand new face in the Top 100, the result bore out their contrasting trajectories: a 1-6, 6-3, 6-4 win for the rising 18-year-old over the 29-year-old in what was thought to be the home stretch of her career.
Unexpectedly, their paths cross again for a second time nearly half a decade later. Given the finality of Wozniacki's first exit from the sport, her comeback is arguably the most surprising of the various former champions currently making their way back up the rankings. It's clicked into gear this week on the slow hard courts of Indian Wells, where she lifted the trophy in 2011. Wozniacki has notched quality wins over a variety of opponents -- outsteadying Zhu Lin, blunting Donna Vekic's power and winning a battle of returning mothers over old foe Angelique Kerber. Impressively, she also outlasted Katie Volynets, running away with a 6-0 decider.
"I feel like I found the tennis physique back from playing more matches in a row, and I'm happy with that," Wozniacki said after defeating Volynets.
Swiatek has had an odd year. At times, she has seemed as dominant as ever, but she's also suffered two surprising losses to players ranked outside the Top 30 at the time, Linda Noskova at the Australian Open and Anna Kalinskaya in Dubai. This fortnight, Swiatek has been in ruthless mode, dropping only 10 games in three matches -- but as Wozniacki, who has keenly observed her over the years from the commentary booth, will know, that doesn't necessarily mean she's invulnerable.
Head to Head
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[28] Anastasia Potapova vs. [31] Marta Kostyuk (UKR)
A significant milestone is on the line in this meeting between two former junior Grand Slam champions. Anastasia Potapova is now a three-time WTA 1000 quarterfinalist. She previously fell at this stage of Dubai in 2021 and Miami two years later. Marta Kostyuk made her first Grand Slam quarterfinal at the Australian Open two months ago. The winner will reach the semifinals at WTA 1000 level or above for the first time in her career.
The momentum is with Kostyuk. The 21-year-old has also reached her first WTA 500 final this year, in San Diego two weeks ago, and her 2024 record now stands at 14-5. Her coaching partnership with Sandra Zaniewska has paid dividends in terms of harnessing her emotions and delivering her all-court game with more control. By contrast, Potapova is seeking to recapture her form of early 2023, when she surged to a career high of No.21. However, that was also the last time she made a semifinal, on the grass of Birmingham.
History, though, is with Potapova, who was the winner in both of their previous encounters -- a 6-1, 6-3 rout in Miami last year and a 6-7(6), 7-5, 6-4 marathon in Birmingham.
Yuan Yue (CHN) vs. [3] Coco Gauff (USA)
Most of the chatter may have been about Coco Gauff's birthday on Wednesday, but arguably more significant than playing her first match as a 20-year-old was how efficient and businesslike that match was. The US Open champion's 6-0, 6-2 rout of Elise Mertens was her cleanest performance since the first week of the Australian Open. It was a contrast to the scrappy form she showed in the Middle East and even the start of Indian Wells, where she had to come from 5-2 down in the third set to win her opening match against Clara Burel.
Gauff has managed to find her best level by gritting out tough in Indian ells, but now she'll face someone who hasn't had to struggle to find form lately. Yuan Yue is riding a nine-match winning streak. She captured her first WTA title in Austin two weeks ago. The 25-year-old Chinese player debuted in the Top 50 and has backed it up with her first two Top 20 wins in Indian Wells -- against No.8 seed Zheng Qinwen in the second round and over No.11 seed Daria Kasatkina in the fourth round.
Yuan's power game is thriving under her brand new coach, former ATP player José Hernández Fernández. Remarkably, the pair only met for the first time the day before the Austin tournament began, and Yuan is Hernández Fernández's first professional coaching charge. That's the kind of dynamic that makes for a nothing-to-lose confidence, and Gauff will have to be wary.
[9] Maria Sakkari (GRE) vs. [23] Emma Navarro (USA)
This year, Emma Navarro has repeatedly been asked variations on the same question: How have you risen so suddenly? Ranked No.122 a year ago, the American is now at a career-high of No.23, and could make her Top 20 debut next week. She's flown under the radar for much of her climb, but a first Top 5 victory over Aryna Sabalenka in the third round here has ensured that will no longer be the case.
To Navarro, though, it hasn't been sudden. In Doha a month ago, she told press that she felt her level had already been high 12 months previously -- but she had opted to play the long game, focusing on ITF and WTA 125 tournaments. In 2023, she only won 16 matches at tour level -- but a whopping 64 overall.
"I felt like it was really important to just take my time and go through this rite of passage," Navarro said. "Playing ITFs and getting a bunch of matches in and just gaining confidence in who I am as a player, how I like to play and the plays I like to go to in big moments, just figuring all that stuff out. By getting a lot of matches in, I think that was really important for me and it gave me a lot of confidence coming into this new level."
All that experience of closing matches out and going deep in tournaments has paid off. Navarro is now 18-5 in 2024, including her first WTA title, in Hobart.
Maria Sakkari was ambushed by Navarro in San Diego last September, suffering a 6-4, 0-6, 7-6(4) quarterfinal upset -- but took a 6-2, 6-4 revenge in Dubai last month. Sakkari, a finalist in Indian Wells two years ago and a semifinalist last year, has snapped out of a run of early losses to navigate a tough Indian Wells draw including Diana Shnaider and Caroline Garcia.
The 28-year-old has said her decision to end her six-year coaching relationship with Tom Hill a month ago was based on her desire to take an "extra step" in her career. So far, her new partnership with David Witt is paying dividends, and Sakkari will be eyeing her half of the Indian Wells draw as an opportunity to start that step in earnest.
