SAP Inside the Numbers: Who will rule the clay court season?
SAP Inside the Numbers is an ongoing series which looks to preview and reflect on the tour's major swings throughout the season. With the three biggest clay-court events just around the corner in next week's Mutua Madrid Open, the Internazionali BNL d'Italia the following week, all culminating in the second Slam of the season at Roland Garros, SAP and WTA Insider dig deeper into the numbers to highlight what to expect over the upcoming weeks on the terre battue.
Here's where the 2018 clay-court season stands as the tour turns to the third Premier Mandatory event of the season in Madrid, which begins on Saturday.
Premier Level:
Volvo Car Open: Kiki Bertens d. Julia Goerges, 6-2, 6-1.
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Karolina Pliskova d. CoCo Vandeweghe, 7-6(2), 6-4.
International Level
Ladies Open Lugano: Elise Mertens d. Aryna Sabalenka, 7-5, 6-2.
Copa Colsanitas Bogota: Anna Karolina Schmiedlova d. Lara Arruabarrena, 6-2, 6-4.
Istanbul Cup: Pauline Parmentier d. Polona Hercog, 6-4, 3-6, 6-3.
Ongoing this week: Prague Open, Morocco Open.
The dirt may be her weaker surface, but three-time Roland Garros champion Serena Williams' clay-court bona fides are second to none. She has won 13 titles on clay, leading all active players. Serena also leads the tour in Premier titles, snagging 7 in her career. Sitting second behind her is two-time French Open champion Maria Sharapova, whose mid-career transformation into one of the game's clay-court stalwarts was rewarded by 6 Premier titles. Both women, who account for four of the last six Roland Garros titles, top the leaderboard when it comes to clay-court performance at the tour's most prestigious events.
World No.1 Simona Halep made her mark on the clay, making two of her three Slam finals at Roland Garros. The two-time Madrid champion comes in third behind Serena and Sharapova in winning percentage on clay at Premier 5 tournaments or higher at 71.9%, just ahead of Victoria Azarenka and reigning Roland Garros champion Jelena Ostapenko.
Petra Kvitova sits at an impressive 8th in winning percentage at the tour's biggest clay events. The big-hitting Czech has posted a 44-20 record at Premier events, with 20 of those wins coming in Madrid, where she is a two-time champion.
While the list of the most successful clay-courters boasts familiar names, recent history points to a more open field when the tour moves to clay. The last 15 Premier clay tournaments have been won by 13 different women, with only Serena and Halep winning multiple titles during that stretch.
2015 Madrid: Petra Kvitova
2015 Rome: Maria Sharapova
2015 Roland Garros: Serena Williams
2016 Charleston: Sloane Stephens
2016 Stuttgart: Angelique Kerber
2016 Madrid: Simona Halep
2016 Rome: Serena Williams
2016 Roland Garros: Garbiñe Muguruza
2017 Charleston: Daria Kasatkina
2017 Stuttgart: Laura Siegemund
2017 Madrid: Simona Halep
2017 Rome: Elina Svitolina
2017 Roland Garros: Jelena Ostapenko
2018 Charleston: Kiki Bertens
2018 Stuttgart: Karolina Pliskova
Clay-court tennis is defined by the multitude of variables a player must adjust to depending on the day. No surface is as influenced by environmental factors - heat, rain, temperature fluctuation, altitude - and no two clay events plays the same. Small variances can make a big difference. Just ask two-time Madrid champion Halep.
"Madrid's clay is different," Halep said. "In Stuttgart, they don’t wet the court, so it’s a different structure, it's not the real clay. That’s why it’s different, and I don’t really feel it like I want to.
"Madrid I like because it’s a little bit heavier, so you don’t slide that much. In Stuttgart, I feel like I cannot keep my feet on the ground. That’s why I like Madrid."
Madrid's altitude can be the trickiest of the environmental factors during the spring season, and it has typically favored the more aggressive players who can take advantage of the ball flying faster than at other events. To wit, two-time Wimbledon champion Kvitova has won the title twice and is tied with Serena and Sharapova for most match-wins in Madrid with 20.
Since the tournament became a clay-court event in 2009, the champion has gone on to win Roland Garros twice - Serena in 2013 and Sharapova in 2014. In two other instances, the Madrid champion went on to make the Paris final, with Dinara Safina finishing runner-up in 2009 and Halep doing the same in 2017.
While the green clay in Charleston, indoor clay in Stuttgart, and altitudinous clay in Madrid have their quirks, most players agree the clay in Rome is the closest thing to "true clay" on tour. In the last decade, the event has been dominated by Serena and Sharapova, with the two winning 6 of the last 7 titles. In fact, Elina Svitolina's title run last year snapped the duo's streak of six straight titles in the Eternal City.
As with Madrid, the Rome champion has gone on to win Roland Garros twice since 2009: Sharapova in 2012 and Serena in 2013. The champion has gone on to make the Roland Garros final twice: Safina in 2009 and Serena in 2016.
Over the last decade, Court Philippe Chatrier has been home to a flurry of unexpected title runs. 20-year-old Ostapenko added her name to the list last year. Playing in just her second main draw in Paris, the Latvian stunned the field with her audacious power to become the 5th maiden Slam winner at Roland Garros since 2008.
Since 2008, five women have won their first major titles at the French Open:
2008 - Ana Ivanovic
2010 - Francesca Schiavone
2011 - Li Na
2016 - Garbiñe Muguruza
2017 - Jelena Ostapenko
By comparison, over that same span, the US Open has crowned 3 first-time champions (Sam Stosur, Flavia Pennetta, Sloane Stephens), the Australian Open has crowned 3 (Azarenka, Angelique Kerber, Caroline Wozniacki), and Wimbledon has crowned 2 (Kvitova, Marion Bartoli).
So what can we expect over the course of the next five weeks on the clay? The clay-court warriors have proven their mettle over time, but the Parisian stage is well prepared for another dramatic conclusion on the most unpredictable surface on tour.