Point-counterpoint: Making the case for Swiatek and Sakkari in the Indian Wells final

A lot is on the line when Iga Swiatek takes on Maria Sakkari on Sunday in the BNP Paribas Open final (1 p.m. PT). And that goes beyond walking away from the desert in Indian Wells with a championship trophy.

The winner will move up to a career-high No.2 ranking. For Sakkari, it would be the highest position by a Greek player (man of woman) since the inception of the rankings. For Swiatek, she would match fellow Polish player Agnieszka Radwanska’s No. 2 ranking, which she reached in July of 2012.   

Semifinal results: Swiatek overcomes Halep | Sakkari beats Badosa in three

But as far as the matchup itself?

“I just have full faith and a lot of confidence on my game and on myself right now,” Sakkari said of her Sunday opponent, also acknowledging Swiatek’s current form.

Swiatek conceded that she will be in for a battle against Sakkari but that she will be ready for what should be a physical showdown.

Here’s our case for each player:

Indian Wells: Scores | Draw | Order of play

Advantage, Swiatek

Closing the gap between physical and emotional maturity can sometimes be the most difficult challenge for young, talented athletes.

Iga Swiatek overwhelmed Simona Halep in 2020 on her way to the title at Roland Garros (losing three games), but only four months later at the Australian Open, Swiatek still felt like the underdog. She played like one, too, losing to Halep in three sets.

“That was my second tournament after winning the Grand Slam,” Swiatek told reporters Friday. “So basically I still didn’t feel like I’m like settled into the Top 10 or Top 20. But right now it’s a little bit different and I feel like I have much more experience that I can use.”

And because the 20-year-old feels that way, the results follow. Swiatek was terrific in defeating Halep 7-6(6), 6-4 in the BNP Paribas semifinals. The final step? Carrying that momentum into Sunday’s final against Maria Sakkari, who has achieved a breakthrough of her own in the California desert. Sakkari took down defending champion Paula Badosa in the semifinals – after going 0-4 in previous WTA 1000 semifinals.

Swiatek played Sakkari three times in a span of five months last year – at Roland Garros, Ostrava and at the WTA Finals in Guadalajara – losing all three. But, thinking like a favorite, Swiatek beat Sakkari last month in the Doha semifinals. It should happen again Sunday. The numbers, as they say, don’t lie. Swiatek:

• Leads all Hologic WTA Tour players with 19 match wins.
• Has won 10 straight matches.
• Is seeking her fifth career title. In the last quarter century, only four women have done that before their 21st birthday: Kim Clijsters, Serena and Venus Williams and Svetlana Kuznetsova – multi-major winners all.

Swiatek has shown a new grittiness at Indian Wells, coming back to win three times after dropping the first set. With a career-high No. 2 ranking on the line for both players, this one should be fun to watch.

Not only is Swiatek thinking like a winner, she’s playing a more nuanced game of power and finesse.

“I’m pretty glad that I’m also good at balancing the aggression, the control, because that’s I think that’s the most important thing in tennis,” Swiatek said. “Because really we are super strong and we can hit really hard, but we’ve got to choose the right moments.

“Earlier I didn’t feel like I was choosing the right moments, but I think it also comes with a little bit of experience.”

Make no mistake, this is her moment. -- Greg Garber

Advantage, Sakkari

Maria Sakkari is ready for her moment. The 26-year-old has had some tough luck at the semifinal stages of big tournaments. Since winning her sole title at 2019 Rabat, Sakkari had lost 10 of her past 12 semifinals before her win Friday over defending champion Badosa.

She came into the match with an 0-6 combined record at Slam and WTA 1000 semifinals. She responded by playing a focused, resilient match to beat Badosa and advance to the biggest final of her career.

Sakkari's tearful reaction on match point said it all.

"I'm actually at the point right now where I believe it's going to come no matter what because I put myself in these situations right now where I'm a thousand percent sure it's going to come," Sakkari said earlier in the week. "If it doesn't come, too bad. What can I say?

"I really believe that it's going to come. Whether it's this week, next week, in two or three months, I don't really know. It's just the way I'm playing right now, the way I'm feeling, the way I approach every match, is different to what it was last year."

Sakkari's form backs up her belief. Her run to the Indian Wells final didn't come out of nowhere. She has now made the semifinals or better in three straight tournaments. She has done so with her trademark grit and baseline game, but it has been her continually improving serve that has been the difference.

Sakkari came into Indian Wells converting 76.4% of her service games this season. In the tournament's notoriously slower conditions - it's no surprise that all four semifinalists were four of the game's premier clay-courters - Sakkari has outperformed herself, winning 84.8% of her service games. She has been broken just seven times across five matches.

Swiatek has looked incredibly strong, and it would surprise no one if she walks away with a second straight WTA 1000 title. But Sakkari knows how to beat Swiatek, holding a 3-1 head-to-head advantage. Swiatek overpowered Sakkari in the Doha semifinals with a more aggressive baseline game, but the Greek star will be ready for that tactical change when she faces her again.

It will all come down to execution. The winner will walk away as the new World No.2. But Sakkari will embrace her underdog role. She's not the one on the 10-match winning streak. She's not the higher-ranked player. She's the one with nothing to lose.

There is an air of inevitability to Sakkari and her finally getting her hands on one of the game's biggest trophies. It will happen eventually, so why not make it on Sunday? -- Courtney Nguyen