Muchova halts Rybakina’s win streak; to face Sabalenka in Brisbane semis

If Friday’s first Brisbane quarterfinal had been a boxing match, Karolina Muchova would have taken the first round, Elena Rybakina the second and the third -- or the decider -- would have been considered too close to call.

Brisbane: Scores | Draws | Order of play

But despite the two Top 20 players trading blows for more than two hours, this was tennis, not boxing, and there were no split decisions to determine the winner. Instead, Muchova definitively snapped Rybakina’s 13-match winning streak and earned her first win over the former Wimbledon champion since 2019 with a 6-2, 2-6, 6-4 victory at Pat Rafter Arena.

“I’m just happy to be playing again, to be out here,” Muchova said after the match. “I missed a few years in Australia that I didn’t even come because of injury, so it’s just great that I’m here and enjoying playing with my team and friends here.”

With the win, she booked a semifinal showdown with Aryna Sabalenka, after the World No. 1 defeated Madison Keys 6-3, 6-3 a few hours later to secure her own spot in the final four. 

It marks Muchova’s first WTA Tour Driven by Mercedes-Benz semifinal appearance since last February in Dubai.

Muchova shows how dangerous she is when healthy

Talent has never been the issue for Muchova. Availability has. The Czech has long been snakebit by injuries, but when she’s healthy, or close to it, she’s capable of giving anyone trouble. On Friday, that “anyone” was Rybakina.

Muchova began her offensive early, earning two break points -- the first of 11 she would generate throughout the match -- in the opening game. Rybakina escaped with timely serving, but her serve faltered at 2-all when a double fault on break point handed Muchova a 3-2 lead.

It was the first of four straight games won by the 29-year-old, who closed out the first set in 35 minutes by playing patient, disciplined tennis. She finished the first set with just five unforced errors to Rybakina’s 18.

Rybakina flipped the script in the second set to force a decider, where neither player could separate in the first eight games. But Muchova seized control with a break to love for a 5-4 lead, then served out the match, sealing the win with a forehand winner.

Sabalenka reigns supreme in hard-hitting Top 10 affair

It’s hard to pinpoint why, but there’s something undeniably pure about watching Sabalenka and Keys mash the heck out of the ball, point after point. Even on a day when neither was at her best, the sheer power on display -- forehand, backhand, first serve, it didn’t matter -- was unmistakable.

But with great power comes great responsibility, and few players harness their strength more effectively than Sabalenka.

Despite Keys throwing everything at her, the Belarusian never blinked. After Keys held for a 3-2 lead, Sabalenka responded by reeling off four straight games to take the first set, closing it out with her trademark backhand down the line on her third set point.

In the second set, Keys appeared to dial back the aggression after seven costly double faults in the opener, just as Sabalenka decided to crank hers up. Sabalenka took more risks on serve, firing five aces after hitting none in the first set, and pounced on Keys’ increasingly conservative second serves. On one such occasion, Sabalenka vultured Key’s second serve and crushed a forehand winner down the line for a 3-1 lead.

“I was trying to put as much pressure as I can on her serve,” Sabalenka said in her on-court interview. “That’s all I was thinking about, and I think I did it well. I put so much pressure back on her because yeah, she’s aggressive, but then I tried to put all that speed back at her.”

Keys kept at it, though, breaking back for 3-2 and staying in the mix with several highlight-reel winners of her own. She actually finished with more winners than Sabalenka (25 to 20), but the damage caused by the vulnerability of her second serve proved too much to overcome, allowing Sabalenka to run away with the victory and advance to the semifinals to face Muchova.

Advantage…Muchova?

There aren't many players who have found consistent success against Sabalenka, but Muchova is one of them.

Muchova leads the head-to-head 3-1, having won each of their last three meetings dating back to 2023. Sabalenka’s lone victory in the series came in their first matchup in 2019.

Their most recent meeting came in the 2024 Beijing quarterfinals, where Muchova won in three sets en route to the final. Coincidentally, that remains her most recent WTA final, but that could change if she manages to pull off the unthinkable and defeat the World No. 1 for a fourth straight time.