March Madness at the Miami Open: Who’s most likely to bust the draw wide open?
March brings its own kind of bracket chaos.
Across the country, college basketball takes over as 68 teams in both the men’s and women’s tournaments chase a national title and office productivity quietly disappears for a few weeks. But while brackets are being busted, another draw -- just as unforgiving, just as unpredictable -- is starting to take shape in Miami.
The second leg of the Sunshine Double is underway, and the stakes feel familiar: survive and advance, or go home early. The field is loaded from top to bottom, but like any March bracket, it’s the tennis version of mid-majors -- the unseeded threats and in-form disruptors -- who can turn a section upside down.
So in the spirit of the madness, let’s see which Cinderella is ready for a 16-over-1 moment, which top seeds will survive the opening weekend and who will be the last one standing at Hard Rock Stadium.
One (seed) Shining Moment
Aryna Sabalenka is coming off a title in Indian Wells, what are the biggest factors in her path to sweeping the Sunshine Double?
Brad Kallet: Just as it's hard to win back-to-back NCAA tournaments, it's hard to sweep the Sunshine Double. Even with first-round byes, you still have to win 12 matches, against loaded fields, over the course of a grueling month. But she's already taken care of what, in theory, appeared to be the more daunting challenge of the equation: winning Indian Wells for the first time after not playing in more than a month. She's already won Miami and feels at home in this city. In order to complete the sweep, she'll need to continue her serving dominance -- she held in 58 of her 63 service games in the desert.
Noah Poser: Like UConn in this year's NCAA Tournament, Sabalenka enters Miami as a heavy favorite. But if anything is going to keep either of them from cutting down the nets, it's the strength of the top seeds chasing them. For UConn, fellow No. 1 seeds UCLA, Texas and South Carolina are all capable of springing the upset. In Miami, Iga Swiatek, Elena Rybakina and Coco Gauff have each had success against Sabalenka before. Rybakina, especially, looks poised to challenge her again. She beat Sabalenka in the Australian Open final and held championship point in Indian Wells before falling to the World No. 1. If anyone can stop Sabalenka from sweeping the Sunshine Double, it's her.
Matt Wilansky: Let’s be real, there is a reason completing the Sunshine Double is elusive -- it might be the biggest test in tennis. But then again, there is a reason Sabalenka is the World No. 1 player. She’s operating at a UConn women level of dominance right now. To answer the question, she needs to navigate the "opening tip" without letting the pressure of the sweep create early turmoil. In other words, she can't look past the first weekend or get caught in a grind against lower-seeded opponents. Sabalenka’s path depends on her staying aggressive and keeping her unforced errors low. If she dictates the tempo from the start, she's the favorite to run the table.
Full-court press
Which quarter is the toughest path to come through?
Brad Kallet: They're all rough, and I wavered back and forth, but I think Gauff's section is the most daunting -- and the most unpredictable. With Amanda Anisimova in that section, you have two Top 6 players, plus two players just outside the Top 10 in Belinda Bencic and Linda Noskova. Remember that Noskova is coming off a run to the semifinals in Indian Wells. The always-dangerous Elise Mertens, Maria Sakkari and Diana Shnaider don't make things any easier. Plenty of established veterans and champions in the mix, to go with rising stars in Tereza Valentova and Zeynep Sonmez.
Noah Poser: Both Rybakina and Swiatek face tough draws. Once again, Rybakina may have to go through Jessica Pegula to reach the semifinals, while Swiatek's section includes Mirra Andreeva, Victoria Mboko, Karolina Muchova and Alexandra Eala. Because of that depth -- and the seasons those players are having -- Swiatek's quarter looks like the toughest to navigate. Muchova defeated Mboko to win her first WTA 1000 title in Doha, one of two finals Mboko has reached this year after falling to Andreeva in Adelaide. Eala, who surprised everyone with a quarterfinal run in Miami last year, has back it up this season with a quarterfinal in Dubai last month and a Round of 16 showing in Indian Wells. Whoever survives this section will have earned it.
Matt Wilansky: Pinpointing the toughest section is always a bit subjective, but the bottom quarter stands out. Swiatek sits there as the No. 2 seed, and a familiar name could be waiting early -- Eala, the 20-year-old star who upset her in last year’s quarterfinals. It doesn’t ease from there. Muchova arrives as the Doha champion and had won eight straight before Swiatek stopped her in Indian Wells. Mboko, now inside the Top 10 at 19 years old, looks capable of making another deep run, and Andreeva is also in the mix after coming up short in her title defense in California.
Cinderella story
Which unseeded or wild card makes the deepest run?
Brad Kallet: I think Taylor Townsend is going to go on a run. She's made the third round three times here already, and this time I think she gets over the hump, into the final 16. She's pulled off big upsets here before -- Roberta Vinci in 2017, Mertens in 2024, Yulia Putintseva last year -- and the crowds will be behind her. Townsend is also in great form, reaching her first career final in Austin at the start of the month and winning three matches in Indian Wells (to go along with the doubles title). It won't be easy, though. If she beats Lulu Sun in the first round, she'll play Jasmine Paolini next.
Noah Poser: How about Austin champion Peyton Stearns? She opens against Viktorija Golubic, with the winner set to face No. 34 seed Jaqueline Cristian in the second round. That presents an opportunity for Stearns, who should draw plenty of crowd support on home soil. The biggest obstacle in that section is No. 11 seed Ekaterina Alexandrova, though she has struggled to find her footing for much of this season. With that in mind, there's a real chance for Stearns to play her way into the Round of 16 in Miami for the first time.
Matt Wilansky: There are a few directions you could go here. Noskova carried strong form through Indian Wells, and Naomi Osaka’s history in Miami still makes her a factor. But Maria Sakkari stands out. The No. 33 seed here in Miami, she nearly made the Doha final, and last week in Indian Wells, she spoke about a renewed belief in her game. Her game looks more settled, and she’s close to making a run. A potential Round of 32 meeting with Gauff would be an early test -- and a chance to open up the section if she comes through it.
Cutting down the nets
And finally, who are your Final Four picks?
Brad Kallet: I can't pick against Sabalenka and Rybakina right now, even though they each played six matches in Indian Wells. Pencil them in. The other two quarters are where it gets interesting. Swiatek is the favorite in her section, which also includes Andreeva. But I'm going with Mboko, who's started the season 16-5 and made a couple of finals, to get to the semis. And with Gauff still recovering from her left arm injury, I'll take Anisimova to round out the final four.
Noah Poser: Sabalenka, Rybakina, Anisimova and Mboko. When it comes to March Madness, I'm bracket obsessed. I'm the guy who fills out the maximum number of brackets on both the men's and women's sides -- but the first one I make is always the one I ride with. This year, I named my main brackets "Don't Overthink This." I picked Duke and Player of the Year favorite Cameron Boozer on the men's side, and UConn and Player of the Year favorite Sarah Strong on the women's side. Best team plus best player feels like a solid formula. So for Miami, I'm taking my own advice. Sabalenka and Rybakina are the best players in the world right now, and while a Pegula "upset" over Rybakina is tempting, I'll refrain this time. Gauff withdrew from Indian Wells with an injury, so the safest pick in that section is Anisimova. And as I mentioned, the bottom quarter is the toughest to navigate, but Mboko has been one of the best players on tour this season. She's my final pick to round out the final four.
Matt Wilansky: Let’s get straight to it. It’s hard to go against Sabalenka, but carrying that level from Indian Wells into Miami isn’t automatic, so I’ll take a swing on Jelena Ostapenko -- when she’s on, she can take the racquet out of anyone’s hands. In the second quarter, Pegula remains one of the steadiest players in the draw. She’s 16-3 on the season, played well in Indian Wells and was a finalist here a year ago. In the third, Anisimova looks well-positioned given her form and the section around her. And in the bottom quarter, Swiatek hasn’t won a title yet this season, but her level still puts her in the mix to come through.