Navratilova's breakdown: The battle for supremacy takes center stage at Roland Garros

PARIS -- Before Martina Navratilova boards her flight to Paris to anchor Tennis Channel’s Roland Garros coverage, she finds herself stuck in the familiar bottleneck of bumper-to-bumper traffic on a sticky South Florida afternoon.

With nothing but red brake lights in front of her and hours to kill, the 18-time Grand Slam singles champion has already mentally traveled across the Atlantic, dissecting a clay-court draw that feels particularly crowded among the leading contenders.

The margins entering the French Open appear slimmer than they have in recent seasons. The world’s best players on the WTA Tour Driven by Mercedes-Benz have consistently shaped the conversation throughout the clay swing, with Swiatek still the benchmark on clay but no longer operating with the same cushion she once enjoyed.

So how does Navratilova see the leading contenders sorting themselves out over the next two weeks on the red clay? We break it down.

No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka

2026 W-L: 27-3
Best Roland Garros result: Runner-up last year 

The skinny: After a 12-0 run to sweep the Sunshine Double in Indian Wells and Miami, Sabalenka went 4-2 during the clay swing, with both losses coming against opponents outside the Top 25. Even so, she arrives at Roland Garros with a 27-3 record on the season and a 1,200-point rankings cushion over Elena Rybakina. Sabalenka arrives in Paris -- where she finished runner-up last year -- after another productive clay swing, bringing one of the tour’s most forceful baseline games back to a surface that has increasingly become a strength.

Navratilova’s thoughts: “I’ve seen a player who has really improved every aspect of her game -- shot selection, giving herself more margin, transitioning forward, decision-making, variety. Her movement and point construction have improved a lot. She’s become a much more complete player, and I think that gives her confidence. She still has the power, but now she has more options. 

“Clay is probably still the most difficult surface for her style, but there’s no reason she can’t win here. She’s the most dominant player in the world right now.”

No. 2 Elena Rybakina

2026 W-L: 30-7
Best Roland Garros result: Two-time quarterfinalist (2021, 2024)

The skinny: Only one player arrives at Roland Garros already holding a Grand Slam title this season, and it’s Rybakina, who beat Sabalenka in the Australian Open final back in January. Rybakina also won Stuttgart to open her clay swing before putting together a solid 6-2 run through Madrid and Rome. And while clay traditionally rewards grinders and point constructors, few players can flatten a court and speed up matches the way Rybakina can when she’s dictating early.

Navratilova’s thoughts: “Honestly, her biggest challenge the last few years has been health, not tennis. It’s been illnesses, respiratory issues, energy levels. She needs to stay healthy and conserve her energy. She grew up on clay, so she’s comfortable moving on it. Her serve works anywhere. The only thing is maybe her movement isn’t quite as natural on clay as some of the other top players. But we’ve seen her success all season, and there is no reason why she won’t be able to make a deep run."

No. 3 Iga Swiatek

2026 W-L: 18-9
Best Roland Garros result: Four-time champion (2000, 2022, 2023, 2024)

The skinny: Despite sitting at No. 3 in the rankings, Swiatek remains the standard in Paris. Since the start of 2020, no player has won more clay-court titles than Swiatek’s 10, more than double the next closest active player. Her 40-3 career record at Roland Garros only reinforces that reputation. Even in a season where the top of the women’s game feels tighter than usual, the conversation on clay still tends to circle back to the six-time Grand Slam winner.

Navratilova’s thoughts: “She’s such an interesting case because even when she was the favorite early on, she somehow still felt under the radar. Even though things feel a little more unpredictable around her recently,  she’s won here four times, and this is still her best surface. When you’ve had that much success somewhere, you can almost play from memory. I think the rest of the tour has gotten better and figured out more ways to play against her.

"She likes routine, and she’s gone through coaching changes recently. I don’t think she’s felt completely settled. That can affect confidence. But she seems like she is in a much better spot than she was earlier in the season."

No. 4 Coco Gauff

2026 W-L: 24-9
Best Roland Garros result: 2025 champion

The skinny: Gauff returns to Roland Garros as the defending champion and has strung together another stretch of strong results in 2026. She has already reached WTA 1000 finals in Miami and Rome this season, along with semifinal and quarterfinal runs in Dubai and Stuttgart. Her speed and defense continue to make her one of the toughest players to hit through on clay, and her Rome performance showed how comfortable she looks on the surface heading back to Paris. 

Navratilova’s thoughts: “As the defending champion, that’s the kind of pressure you want. The harder pressure is when you haven’t won yet and you’re trying to break through. I actually think Coco is a better player now than she was a year ago. She looks mentally stronger. Even when she loses a point, she resets very quickly.

“She’s serving more aggressively, but I still don’t think she completely trusts it yet. There are still moments where the forehand breaks down under pressure, but her footwork and athleticism usually give her margin to recover. She prepares beautifully on the backhand side, and what we saw from her last week, she’s ready to defend her championship."

Navratilova’s quick hits on the rest of the Top 10 

No. 5 Jessica Pegula: “She’s becoming more aggressive, and I think that changes everything for her. Before, maybe she would beat everybody below her ranking, but struggles against the players above her. Now she can beat those players too because she’s taking more initiative.”

No.  6 Amanda Anisimova: "Playing your very first clay match of the entire season at a Grand Slam is a tough ask. We know what a spectacular player Amanda can be -- she proved that on the grass and hard courts last summer with those two finals in the majors. She has the tools for Roland Garros. But clay requires matches. You can train all you want, but finding your slide, managing the bad bounces and trusting your lungs in a three-hour match is completely different. We will find out quickly." 

No. 7 Elina Svitolina: “She’s flying high. She played some of the most aggressive tennis I’ve ever seen from her in Rome. In the past, she might attack for a couple points, miss one and immediately go back into a safer mode. Now she’s staying aggressive much longer. That’s a huge change.”

No. 8 Mirra Andreeva: “She has every shot in the book. If there’s a weakness, it’s probably being too hard on herself emotionally. She uses so much energy emotionally during matches, but talent-wise she has everything.”

No. 9 Victoria Mboko: “She’s a tremendous athlete and already hits a very heavy ball. The key for her on clay is movement and getting comfortable sliding. She doesn’t have a huge sample size on clay yet, but the athleticism and power are definitely there.”

No. 10 Karolina Muchova: “She probably has the best variety in the game. The problem has always been consistency in staying healthy. She’s constantly dealing with one injury or another. But if she’s healthy, she’s dangerous anywhere, especially in Paris where she was a runner-up.”