Case for the Indian Wells semifinalists: Sakkari, Badosa contest rematch

Tennis is often a game of upsets, of unexpected runs by players who had little recognition heading into tournaments. 

But this year at the BNP Paribas Open, the final four should not come as a surprise. 

Iga Swiatek, Simona Halep, Maria Sakkari and defending champ Paula Badosa have played brilliantly, especially down the stretch. 

Quarterfinal reports: Sakkari takes down Rybakina | Badosa beats Kudermetova | Swiatek ousts Keys | Halep charges past Martic 

Each advanced to Friday's semifinals without dropping a set in the quarters. Halep and Swiatek, combined, lost only three games in their Wednesday matchups. And Badosa and Sakkari have yet to drop a single set in this event. 

"I think no matter who you're playing in the later stage of the tournament, your opponent is for a reason," Sakkari said Thursday in press. 

But as always, something has to give. But what? These are two intriguing matchups with a lot on the line in this WTA 1000-level event. 

Here's our case for each of the four remaining players:  

No.3 Iga Swiatek vs. No.24 Simona Halep

Case for Swiatek

In her first three matches at the BNP Paribas Open, Iga Swiatek did her best to level the field, give her opponents a fighting chance. Against Anhelina Kalinina, Clara Tauson and Angelique Kerber, Swiatek dropped the first set – then came back to win.

“On my next match,” she said, smiling after beating Kerber, “I’m going to be ready to win that first one. It’s not like I’m doing it on purpose.”

In her quarterfinal match against Madison Keys, Swiatek won six of the first seven games, taking that first set with the first set of new balls still in the can. The final was a fairly astounding 6-1, 6-0. In 56 minutes. It was her ninth win in a row.

Take note, Simona Halep. Swiatek is starting to get serious.

Still only 20, she’s begun the season 18-3, the most wins among Hologic WTA Tour players. And while Halep is a more-than-respectable 15-3, it says here that Swiatek will prevail in their Friday semifinal.

I know you will point to Halep’s 2-1 head-to-head advantage, Alex, but I believe the past is irrelevant. Halep’s edge comes from a 3-6, 6-1, 6-4 victory at the 2021 Australian Open – only four months after Swiatek’s breakthrough win at Roland Garros. It was only her sixth match back and she was understandably still a little unsettled.

While the gritty Indian Wells courts – playing a little like the red clay at the French Open – give Halep some extra time to run down Swiatek’s deep, heavy groundstrokes, the Pole has an edge in firepower and the patience to wait her out. They’re both Roland Garros champions, but Swiatek is nearly a decade younger.

“She’s playing great tennis right now,” Swiatek said of Halep. “For me, it’s going to be a test to see how much I can improve. I feel like my tennis is changing.”

Changing, if it’s possible, for the better. -- Greg Garber

Case for Halep

Simona Halep is the most accomplished player remaining at the BNP Paribas Open, yet she has flown slightly under the radar in reaching her fourth Indian Wells semifinals. Perhaps it's her No.26 ranking, an artificially low position for the former World No.1 after an injury-struck 2021. Perhaps other players have had bigger-name matchups, such as Paula Badosa's defeat of Leylah Fernandez or Iga Swiatek battling past Angelique Kerber.

But Halep has often been happiest when quietly building confidence out of the spotlight, a sentiment she repeated throughout her press conference after dominating Petra Martic 6-1, 6-1 in the quarterfinals.

"I feel day-by-day much better," she said. "I feel more confident. I feel that my game is coming back to the level that I've been probably the best version of myself a few years ago."

Halep's new collaboration with 28-year-old Frenchman Morgan Bourbon is also significant. Not just because it indicates that, at the age of 30, she's still ready to hear new voices in order to get more out of her career, but also because it's the first time that Halep has been coached by someone younger. 

As Greg pointed out above, Halep's head-to-head advantage over Swiatek feels less relevant, given the latter's huge improvements since they last played 13 months ago. But Halep is also getting better with each match – she has dropped only 12 points behind her first serve in her last two rounds combined – and has all the experience behind her.

The 2015 champion loves the desert conditions and is now tied for sixth-most wins in Indian Wells, alongside Svetlana Kuznetsova and Conchita Martínez. She could well draw clear of them immediately. -- Alex Macpherson

No.5 Paula Badosa vs. No.6 Maria Sakkari

Case for Badosa

If you told Paula Badosa 10 days ago she would be back in the Indian Wells semifinals in the first title defense of her career, she would have given you a look of disbelief. That she has done so without dropping a set is just the cherry on top of what has been a dominant run again in the desert. 

But Badosa has been battle-tested in various ways. She came into the tournament 0-3 against both her opening opponent Tereza Martincova and Kudermetova. Against Sara Sorribes Tormo, Badosa edged a gargantuan 82-minute opening set. Her toughest test so far came against US Open finalist Leylah Fernandez in the Round of 16. She won 6-4, 6-4.

The keys to Badosa's progress through the tournament have been her serve and forehand. In her past two wins, over Fernandez and Kudermetova, Badosa has been broken only once. Serving above 65% in her past two matches, she won over 75% of her first-serve points and over 55% of her second-serve points. She's also done well to expose her opponents' second serve, winning over 45% of her second-serve return points.

"I want to show my opponents at the beginning always of the matches, that if you want to win me, you have to stay there three hours and play very well," Badosa said. "I want to show them is they have to be three hours on court."

If those words sound familiar, it's because they might as well have been said by her upcoming semifinal opponent, Maria Sakkari. Sakkari and Badosa went toe-to-toe last fall at the WTA Finals, which Badosa won 7-6(4), 6-4. 

"She's a fighter. I really see sometimes myself in her," Badosa said. "I think we play quite similarly, or we try to do the same things. In this round, you just have to try to put your best tennis on the table and let's see how it goes."

Badosa is confident and rolling. It's going to take a big match from Sakkari to stop her. -- Courtney Nguyen

Case for Sakkari

If it’s tough to pinpoint the overriding key that could get Maria Sakkari to her first WTA 1000 final, credit that to her increasing consistency in all facets of her game. With her pockets of power rising in number, opponents are finding it more difficult to locate a weakness.

Fitness has always been the cornerstone of the Sakkari game. But as she has continually ascended in the rankings, she has made a concerted effort to become more aggressive whenever she has the opportunity.

“My physicality is something that I think is probably the strongest part of my game,” Sakkari said after beating Elena Rybakina to reach the semifinals. “But then again, I feel like I've improved on my serve, I've improved on my groundstrokes. I don't have a huge hole in my game.”

Adding more building blocks has paid off. For example, Sakkari has hit 18 aces this fortnight, second among all players, trailing only Petra Martic’s 21. She has dropped serve only three times in her four matches combined. 

Then include a more self-empowering mentality in the mix, and you can see why she’s made the semifinals or better in her past three tournaments.

“I just try to have a nice chat with myself,” said Sakkari, reflecting on tight moments in her matches. “Sometimes, especially in the past, I would be very, very hard on myself. But now I'm very nice. I have a very nice and kind creature in my mind, in my body.”

Sakkari’s next opponent, defending champion Paula Badosa, won their only previous match, when they were both new Top 10 players squaring off in the round-robin of the Akron WTA Finals.

Maybe Badosa has a trick up her sleeve which got her the last win, and will get her another. But with Sakkari improving on almost a daily basis, it is getting that much harder for anyone to identify cracks in the façade. -- Jason Juzwiak