Navratilova: Making the case for Swiatek and Sabalenka at the WTA Finals

CANCUN, Mexico -- With only two days left in the Hologic WTA Tour’s 2023 season, the year-end No.1 ranking is still in play.

In a delightful turn of events for the global tennis community, the two players involved will face each other in a Saturday semifinal at the GNP Seguros WTA Finals Cancun.

In an ocean of scenarios, this one is pretty simple:

If No.1 Aryna Sabalenka defeats No.2 Iga Swiatek, she’ll retain the top spot she assumed after the US Open.

If Swiatek wins, she must then win the championship Sunday to regain the No.1 ranking she held for 75 consecutive weeks.

Here's Saturday's semifinal schedule, which includes one doubles round-robin match that will determine the fourth semifinalists:

Sabalenka said at the US Open she didn’t want Swiatek to lose the fourth-round match to Jelena Ostapenko that triggered the succession.

WTA Finals: Scores | Draws | Order of play

“I really wanted to play against her to decide who’s the No.1 in the world,” Sabalenka told reporters before the semifinals were set. “So I said that and I have the opportunity to make it happen -- it’s a possibility that we’re going to play for the No.1 spot.

“So I would love to play against Iga. That would be a really incredible match.”

Martina Navratilova, an 18-time major champion, is here in Cancun as an ambassador. Fourteen of those Grand Slam titles came in the seven years she finished as the No.1 player.

“For me, a massive thing is who is No.1 at the end of the year,” Navratilova said, "And then who wins this. It's the biggest tournament of our tour. So any time you can put that into your trophy case, you’re doing pretty well. And now you get a trophy for being No.1 at the end of the year.”

With her insight, let’s break down the matches:

No.1 Aryna Sabalenka vs. No.2 Iga Swiatek

The case for Sabalenka: While she has consistently downplayed the burden of defending the No.1 ranking here, clearly Sabalenka is aware of the situation.

She nearly came unstrung on several occasions during a two-day struggle with Elena Rybakina that was marred by numerous rain relays but managed to compose herself and win in three sets. That vaulted her into the final four and left the No.1 ranking within her control.

All she has to do is beat Swiatek, which hasn’t been historically easy. The 22-year-old from Poland has a career head-to-head advantage of 5-3. This year, though, they’ve split matches with Swiatek winning the Stuttgart final in straight sets and Sabalenka taking the Madrid final in three.

How good has Sabalenka’s season been? She’s the first woman in 17 years (Justine Henin) to reach at least the semifinals of all four majors and the WTA Finals.

Navratilova’s take: “If you think about it, it’s unbelievable -- a perfect ending, except for the fact it’s the semifinals, instead of the finals. Bottom line, who can handle the pressure better with so much riding on it? Aryna was an Amazon for two days, so I think it’s 50-50.”

The case for Swiatek: The World No.2 actually qualified before she even took the court for her third round-robin match, thanks to Marketa Vondrousova’s first-set win over Coco Gauff.

But to guarantee she would have a say in the No.1 conversation, Swiatek needed to win one set against Ons Jabeur. This she did, taking six of the first seven games in a gusty affair at the end of Friday night. Swiatek closed the match by dropping only three games in total. She lost just 14 in the group stage. Only Justine Henin (11) and Swiatek herself last year (13) have lost fewer games since the current format was introduced in 2003. In fact, she's the only player to lose fewer than 20 games twice.

Swiatek is the first player to score at least 10 wins against Top 10 players for consecutive seasons since Serena Williams in 2013-14. She is currently riding a nine-match win streak.

Navratilova’s take: “When Sabalenka’s ball comes in fast, the wind makes it easier to handle. Overall, the wind favors Swiatek. With her spin, she’s able to navigate those gusts -- there’s much less that can go wrong with her game.”

No. 5 Jessica Pegula vs. No.3 Coco Gauff

The case for Pegula: A year ago in Fort Worth, she went 0-3 in singles. This year, the 29-year-old American defeated No.1 Sabalenka, No.4 Rybakina and No.9 Maria Sakkari to win the Bacalar Group -- how’s that for flipping the script?

“I’ve gained confidence playing against the top players and getting wins,” Pegula told reporters. “Now, obviously, I don’t want to be too confident, but I don’t really think I have that problem.”

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Pegula has won two of three singles matches against her doubles partner. But they’ve split this year, with Gauff winning their Eastbourne quarterfinal and Pegula prevailing in the Montreal quarterfinal.

Navratilova’s take: “I think this court and the conditions suit the short, compact strokes we see from Pegula. Very little goes wrong, and she moves well. She dominated the toughest of the two groups. My pick to win was Coco, but with these conditions, I’ll go with Pegula.”

The case for Gauff: It took the final round-robin match to determine the fourth semifinal qualifier. Gauff came back to defeat Vondrousova 5-7, 7-6 (4), 6-3 before Swiatek closed out the proceedings with Jabeur.

Since losing in the opening round at Wimbledon, Gauff has won an astounding 24 of her past 27 matches, with two of those defeats coming to Swiatek and one to Pegula.

Gauff, still only 19, has already achieved all kinds of history here. She’s the first teenager to reach the semifinals of the WTA Finals since Caroline Wozniacki in 2009. Gauff can become only the third teenager to reach the final, since 2002 --after Kim Clijsters (2002) and Maria Sharapova (2004).

“Playing Jess, she’s been playing great in these conditions,” Gauff said. “I’ve been watching her matches, and we obviously know each other’s games very well. So it's going to be a tough matchup. I think she’s so far playing the best out of all the eight girls.”

Navratilova’s take: “In my opinion, Coco has to serve better. She had, what, 17 double faults against Vondrousova? Even with the bloody wind, that won’t cut it. She showed some great mental strength in coming back to beat Vondrousova. Coco has that extra ingredient that most people don’t have.”