Rybakina's sixth straight over Mertens vaults her into Aussie Open quarterfinals

It’s no secret Elena Rybakina has had Elise Mertens’ number for much of her WTA Tour Driven by Mercedes-Benz career. Entering Monday’s fourth-round match at the Australian Open, she had beaten the Belgian five straight times.

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Make it six. Rybakina defeated the No. 21 seed 6-1, 6-3 in 1 hour and 17 minutes to advance to the quarterfinals in Melbourne for the second time, and the first time since reaching the final in 2023.

It’s her first Grand Slam quarterfinal since making the Wimbledon semis in 2024.

“Today, I think I played much better than the previous match,” Rybakina said in her on-court interview. “Some good serves; it was a bit tricky with the sun and shade, but overall, I’m happy that I stayed aggressive, and I think I improved from the last match.”

Rybakina began the day tied for sixth in aces among the women’s field in Melbourne. After hitting 10 more against Mertens, she’ll likely end it tied for second with 24. She’ll have a chance to take over the top spot in her next match, as leader Wang Xinyu (27) fell in the Round of 16 to Amanda Anisimova on Monday.

But while her serve was its usual weapon, it was her return game that carried her through, especially against Mertens’ second serve. And on a day when the Belgian landed just 47% of her first serves, that was enough to swing the match in her favor.

Rybakina saved a break point in the opening game, then watched four break chances slip away in the second game before finally converting her fifth. Fittingly, it was a crosscourt forehand winner off a second serve that set up the opportunity. In fact, each of her last three break points in the game came as a result of forehand winners.

Two games later, she broke again, this time at love. She pounced on another second serve with a backhand winner for a 4-0 lead. Mertens then held for 5-1 to get on the board, but Rybakina’s seventh ace brought up set point, leading her to claim the first set in just over half an hour.

The two traded holds through the first four games of the second set before the 30-year-old’s struggles resurfaced. Rybakina again punished a second serve with a backhand winner to reach break point, then followed with another winner off the backhand wing to break for 3-2.

After saving one match point, Mertens double-faulted to give the World No. 5 a second chance to break her way to victory, and Rybakina capitalized with her 32nd winner to move into the quarterfinals.

With the victory, she now owns more wins over Mertens (seven) than any other player on tour. She’ll next face either Iga Swiatek or Australian qualifier Maddison Inglis.

She has never faced Inglis, but her history with Swiatek is well-documented. In 11 meetings, Swiatek leads their head-to-head 6-5.

If Rybakina can even that series, she’ll reach the semis in Melbourne for the second time and move one step closer to her first Daphne Akhurst Memorial Cup.

Notable stats for Rybakina:

• First-serve percentage: 65% (32/49)
• First-serve points won: 72% (23/32)
• Second-serve points won: 71% (12/17)
• Aces: 10
• Double faults: 1
• Winners: 32
• Unforced errors: 22
• Break points won: 4/9 (44%)
• Net points won: 6/11 (55%)