Doha final preview: Can Muchova throw off red-hot Mboko?

She was an irresistible summer story, winning her home WTA 1000 in Montreal at the irrepressible age of 18. Victoria Mboko zoomed from outside the Top 300 into the Top 20 of the PIF WTA Rankings, and went on to be named 2025 WTA Newcomer of the Year.

Her 2026 encore, based on the spectacular early returns, has been even more impressive.

After Friday’s forceful 6-3, 6-2 victory over Jelena Ostapenko, Mboko is through to Saturday’s Qatar TotalEnergies Open final (6:00 p.m. local time, 10 a.m. ET). She’ll meet Karolina Muchova -- a 3-6, 6-4, 6-1 winner over the resurgent Maria Sakkari -- in a fascinating first-time matchup. Muchova came back after being down a set and a break.

Playing only her sixth WTA 1000 main draw, Mboko is into her second final. It’s like watching a flower swiftly blossoming through the wonder of time-lapse photography. On Monday, the 19-year-old will enter the WTA Tour Driven by Mercedes-Benz Top 10.

"It's kind of crazy,” Mboko told reporters. "I think this came relatively fast, but it's a nice feeling. It's nice to see that, to have that milestone, to see that number. So, yeah, I'm pretty happy with that."

Her 13 match wins so far in 2026 leads all WTA players. Since that triumph at the Canadian Open, only Elena Rybakina (37) and Iga Swiatek (31) have won more than her 29.

Can the versatile Muchova give her a go in the final? Writers Brad Kallet and Greg Garber break down the final match of the season’s first WTA 1000.

The Case for Mboko

Greg Garber: Sometimes, as you know, Brad, it can be a challenge to make a credible case for a player’s success in a final. That said, this has to be the easiest one yet.

Consider what Mboko has done in the past three days alone:

• Beaten Mirra Andreeva -- the only player in the Top 10 younger than she is (by eight months) -- in a third-set tiebreak, saving a match point along the way.
• Taken down No. 2 seed Elena Rybakina in three sets, ending the Australian Open champion's nine-match winning streak. It’s the first time Mboko has defeated two Top 10 players in a single event -- it surely won't be the last.
• Dispatched Ostapenko, the winningest woman (24 wins) in this tournament's history, in 74 minutes.

Mboko is unnervingly poised in pressure situations and already has a remarkably complete game. Against Ostapenko she was measured (15 winners and 15 unforced errors) and constantly pressured the Latvian by playing on or inside the baseline, particularly facing second serves.

While Mboko’s power can be breathtaking, it’s her defense that keeps her in points. She’s one of the quickest players on tour, and her first step might be the fastest.

"She’s a melting pot of everything you want in a player," analyst Stephanie Dubois pointed out during the match.

I couldn’t agree more, Brad.

And listen to the maturity on display when she was asked about her expectations:

"I don't really set goals for myself, just because I like to surprise myself along the way," Mboko said. "You never know what's going to happen in tennis. You can have high moments, you can also have low moments. I think just being positive with myself with whatever happens, it's all a part of the process."

Mboko has navigated her way through the draw, using a variety of game plans specific to her opponents. That flexibility, and that fluidity, should work in her favor against Muchova.

Case closed.

The Case for Muchova

Brad Kallet: You're not wrong, Greg. It's incredibly difficult to pick against Mboko right now, especially considering her thrilling wins over Andreeva and Rybakina, and her convincing effort against Ostapenko.

She's been the star of the week in Doha, and one of the stars of the tour since that tournament in Montreal. All for good reason -- at 19, she looks like she'll be a Top 10 fixture for years to come.

Muchova, on the other hand, has had relatively no attention on her this week, quietly advancing to the final in the face of a less punishing draw. But I'd like to remind you that, prior to her comeback against Sakkari in the semifinals, she hadn't lost a set in Doha, dropping just 19 games in her first four matches.

She was thoroughly challenged against Sakkari, but looked dominant in that third set and should be fresher than Mboko heading into this final. Though Muchova is a decade older, all of the pressure will be on her opponent as expectations continue to rise. That should bode well for the World No. 19, who in addition to being one of the most talented players on tour also owns one of the coolest demeanors. She won't be phased, and her variety and trickery have the potential to throw Mboko off her game.

It's hard to believe that Muchova, despite her ability and longevity, has only won one WTA title (a 250 in Seoul, in 2019) and is just 1-5 in tour-level finals. It's especially surprising considering she's reached the semifinals of a Grand Slam three times, and has been inside the Top 10. This would unquestionably be the biggest title of her career. 

She'll have her hands full, but if she can move Mboko around enough and force extra shots to prolong rallies, she has a strong chance.