Sabalenka tops Mboko for second time in 2026 to make Indian Wells semis
No. 1 seed Aryna Sabalenka came through a marquee encounter with No. 10 seed Victoria Mboko in the BNP Paribas Open quarterfinals, advancing 7-6(0), 6-4 to her third career semifinal at the tournament. Sabalenka saved all five break points that she faced in the match.
Indian Wells: Scores | Draws | Order of play
Sabalenka, a two-time Indian Wells runner-up in 2023 and 2025, defeated Mboko for the second time in as many meetings, having also won 6-1, 7-6(1) in the Australian Open fourth round in January. The World No. 1 has now reached six consecutive semifinals on the WTA Tour Driven by Mercedes-Benz; her last loss before that round was in the Cincinnati quarterfinals last August to Elena Rybakina.
Sabalenka's quest for a first Indian Wells title will continue against either No. 14 seed Linda Noskova or qualifier Talia Gibson. Here are the key takeaways from her win over Mboko.
Sabalenka steps up in clutch moments
Two stats stand out in particular. Firstly, Sabalenka's perfect record when facing break point: she saved all five against her. The timing and the manner in which she did so was even more impressive. The first three came as early as the third game, with Mboko pressuring her on return. Sabalenka saved two with aces, and the third with her first drop shot of the day.
The other two came as she led 4-3 in the second set. As Mboko fought to hang on to the match, the 19-year-old fired a pair of clean return winners -- while Sabalenka, serving into the sun, committed two of her five double faults in this game. But when it came to the break points, it was Sabalenka who hit her spots with a pair of unreturned deliveries.
Sabalenka is already renowned for her tiebreak prowess -- in 2025, she set an Open Era record for the number of tiebreaks won in a single season, finishing with a 22-3 record in them. She's unbeaten in tiebreaks so far in 2026 with a 4-0 record so far, and even got to notch a tiebreak-related first -- the first set marked the first time Sabalenka had claimed a 7-0 tiebreak at tour level in her career.
"I feel like the moment (when) I will feel relaxed, I will definitely start losing. So I felt that's why I have been really successful in those tiebreaks, because I take it really serious," Sabalenka said to press. "I'm not focusing on the past. I'm just trying to take it once again one point at a time.
"I'm aggressive. I'm not thinking about this is tiebreak. I'm just focusing on my game, and I think that's been really the key."
Mboko keeps the match close, but pays the price for blinking
For most of the match, Mboko went toe-to-toe with Sabalenka. Indeed, she also delivered clutch serving and impressive stats, saving seven out of eight break points while tallying 28 winners to 26 unforced errors. (Sabalenka fired 30 winners to only 20 unforced errors.) The Canadian's ability to reset on her own serve despite missing opportunities on Sabalenka's delivery was particularly notable in the opening set.
However, Mboko's work was all undone in a disastrous tiebreak. Four of the seven points were decided by her own unforced errors, all netted groundstrokes. In the second set, Mboko conceded her serve for the only time at 2-2 by sending a backhand long.
Mboko's tally of eight double faults was notably high -- though outweighed by nine aces, and she held serve regardless in every game that saw her commit a double fault. For a teenager who was ranked No. 188 this time last year, and who was making her tournament debut, losing by such fine margins to the World No. 1 still marks another positive step forward in her career.
Sabalenka herself was quick to praise Mboko in her on-court interview in addition to her press conference.
"I think all of those young kids who's on tour right now, they all have a huge potential to be Grand Slam champions," Sabalenka said to reporters. "I just see how aggressive (Mboko) is, how passionate she is, how much she's fighting on court and never giving up. I see this as a future Grand Slam champion, for sure."