Sabalenka and Swiatek are almost there, but first, they need to survive each other

Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek were the WTA Tour’s two top-ranked players for more than three years. They have combined to win seven of the past 12 Grand Slam titles.

On Thursday they meet for the 13th time in the Roland Garros semifinals. It’s their seventh meeting in a clay-court semifinal or final, the most between two women since Arantxa Sánchez Vicario and Conchita Martínez monopolized that surface between 1992 and 2000.

Will Swiatek prevail, keeping alive her hopes for a fourth consecutive title and five of six? Or will Sabalenka, after two semifinal appearances, advance to her first final at Roland Garros?

Elina Svitolina, who lost to Swiatek in the quarterfinals, is leaning toward Swiatek.

“Difficult to say,” she said. “I feel like it's 50-50, but Iga, she won here multiple times. I feel like she’s back in good form. I feel like she’s the one who has the advantage on this court because of so many matches she won on that court.”

While the world will be focused on this semifinal, the patrons on Court Philippe-Chatrier will be frenetically focused on the matchup between Coco Gauff and French wild card Lois Boisson.

Playing in the first Grand Slam main draw of her life, the World No. 361 has won all five of her matches -- joining Monica Seles (1989) and Jennifer Capriati (1990), both at Roland Garros, in that rare feat.

We break down these two extraordinary semifinals:

No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka vs. No. 5 Iga Swiatek

Head-to-head: 8-4, Swiatek, with wins in their past two matches on clay, the 2024 finals in Madrid and Rome -- and five of six on clay overall.

The case for Sabalenka: Sabalenka, too, is in fine form. She defeated No. 8 Zheng Qinwen 7-6(3), 6-3, coming from 4-2 down in the first set.

This is Sabalenka’s seventh semifinal -- of the season. It’s her 11th major semifinal overall -- the most of any player since Maria Sharapova at Roland Garros 14 years ago. Sabalenka has embraced the No. 1 ranking and pushed hard to improve the diversity in her game. More and more, touch -- in the form of drop shots, subtle slices and lobs -- has been evident.

Her confidence is high and she’s committed to taking the next step in Paris, where Karolina Muchova was the winner in her only previous trip to the semifinals. 

Listen to Sabalenka talking about playing Swiatek in her favorite venue:

“I love tough challenges. I think these are the matches where you actually improve as a player and where you get much stronger. And I’m always excited to face someone strong and then someone who can challenge me.

“I go out there and I fight, and I’m ready to leave everything I have to get the win.”

Sabalenka has produced a record of 89-24 in Grand Slams (.788), second only to … Swiatek’s .830.

A fast start will be essential. Sabalenka held on to win that first-set tiebreak against Zheng and coasted through the second. She’s won 19 straight matches when she wins the first set.

Sabalenka is supremely confident; check out her Instagram account. She’s convinced her time has come.

The case for Swiatek: Swiatek has been feeling a lot of pressure as the three-time defending champion but the past two matches -- a rousing comeback over Elena Rybakina and a 6-1, 7-5 victory over Svitolina -- brought out some serious emotions.

She concluded her 26th straight match-victory at the French Open with three consecutive aces.

The last time they played, it was Sabalenka winning 6-3, 6-3 last summer in the semifinals in Cincinnati. But Swiatek dismisses that as a long time ago.

 “For sure you need to be 100 percent,” Swiatek said, “and you need to be there, but I wouldn’t say it’s different against Coco or against good players overall.

“But for sure our rivalry is pushing both of us, I think, but it’s not only about the level of tennis. It's about like everything, how we work, and how professional we are.”

After a rocky run-up, Swiatek has looked every part of a four-time Roland Garros champion, which is why she’ll feel she has the edge here.

The myriad statistics are compelling, but the best might be this:

Swiatek has won 40 of 42 matches at the French Open and can surpass Margaret Court for the best winning percentage of the Open era, .953.

Case closed.

No. 2 Coco Gauff vs. wild card Lois Bosson

Head-to-head: 0-0.

The case for Gauff: She never, ever gives up.

Gauff scuffled through the first set of her quarterfinal against Madison Keys, failing to convert a set point. Then she melted down in the tiebreak, gifting Keys with three double faults. That might have crushed most players -- especially opposite the reigning Australian Open champion -- but Gauff dug in.

Harnessing her forehand and serve, she won eight of the last nine games, ending Keys 11-match win streak in Grand Slams with a 6-7(6), 6-4, 6-1 result. It was Gauff’s fifth career win from a set down against a Top 10 player.

Afterward, Keys explained why Gauff is so hard to beat on clay.

“The court being a little bit slower coupled with the fact that she covers the court so well, I think it just put a little bit of pressure on me to go a little bit more for my shots and maybe press a little bit too much too soon.”

Gauff turned 21 back in March but she’s already reached five major semifinals -- and three in four years at Roland Garros. She’s the youngest American to reach back-to-back semifinals in Paris since Andrea Jaeger 43 years ago.

Boisson goes to extreme lengths to play her forehand, often leaving half the court exposed. Mirra Andreeva couldn’t exploit that opening in the quarterfinals, but Gauff has the speed and the rock-solid backhand to take advantage.

Resilience, however, will be her greatest weapon against Boisson -- and a wildly partisan French crowd.

“I played a match in the Orange Bowl -- I’m pretty sure I was down 6-1, 5-1, and came back and won the match,” Gauff told reporters. “That’s one of the memories that always sticks to me. It’s something I think about.

“Just that I have had that in me from a young age. When times become more difficult, knowing that I can, you know, dig deep in those tough moments.”

The case for Boisson: She was born in Dijon, France, and indeed there seems to be a serious streak of that zesty mustard in her personality.

Boisson had played all of two WTA Tour-level matches before this fortnight at Roland Garros and then the 22-year-old turned the place upside down, taking out Top 10 players in back-to-back matches and reaching the semifinals. The funny thing? As she stood on Chatrier, arms extended in Gladiator fashion, Boisson basked in the applause -- and didn’t seem overly surprised.

Perhaps it’s because she’s had a lot of time to visualize these stunning moments. Boisson received a French Open wild card last year but suffered a catastrophic knee injury. She’s taken full advantage of this second opportunity.

Boisson seems to be blissfully unaware of the commotion she’s causing. Maybe that’s the secret sauce of her success.

“I stay in my zone,” she told reporters. “I stay focused on the tournament, so I don’t really think about everything outside. I don’t really watch the social media and everything. I just stay focused, and I will see all this kind of thing after the tournament.

“No, I don’t think it’s a miracle. For sure, I have a little bit of luck also, but I think it’s just the hard work that I put since I started playing tennis and also last year with my rehab and everything.”

Her unwavering belief can be seen in the massive forehand she makes every effort to hit -- on every shot. 

“She has a great serve,” Mirra Andreeva said after losing in straight sets. “She has a great forehand. I think she hit a lot of winners with her forehand. Today she managed the situation better than me, and I think that’s why she got the win.”

When you’re the first player in the Open Era to get to this stage at the French Open as a wild card everything is working.

“I think every kids who play tennis have the dream to win a Slam,” Boisson said. “More for French player to win Roland Garros, for sure. For sure I will go for the dream, because my dream is to win it, not to be in the semifinal. So I will try to do my best for it.”

Boisson is the youngest Frenchwoman to reach a Grand Slam semifinal since 2025 Roland Garros tournament director Amélie Mauresmo at Wimbledon in 1999. And, at this point, her lack of experience at this level might be a plus. She was wonderfully poised in taking out No. 3 Jessica Pegula and No. 6 Andreeva. 

Why tighten up now?