INDIAN WELLS – Momentum? Yes, it’s a thing.
The two winners of last month’s WTA 1000 events in the Middle East -- Doha champion Karolina Muchova and Dubai champion Jessica Pegula -- headline Wednesday's WTA Tour Driven by Mercedes-Benz action at the BNP Paribas Open.
The four Round of 16 matches from the bottom half of the draw also feature Top 10 players Iga Swiatek, Elena Rybakina and Elina Svitolina.
The outlier -- along with Sonay Kartal -- is No. 44-ranked Katerina Siniakova, who scored a huge upset on Monday when she knocked off defending champion Mirra Andreeva.
The winning backhand on match point hit the net cord and trickled over.
"I was like, 'Oh, is it on the other side?'" Siniakova told reporters. "I mean, of course I'm happy it went on the other side. I wanted to enjoy it, but definitely I will not say I'm not happy.”
We are more than happy to break down Wednesday’s matches.
No. 2 Iga Swiatek vs. No. 13 Karolina Muchova
Head-to-head: 4-1, Swiatek. Their last meeting was a 6-1, 6-1 Swiatek win last year at Indian Wells.
Muchova, a 6-0, 6-3 winner over Antonia Ruzic in the third round, has won all four sets she’s played, although she was forced to save four match points in the second round against Anna Bondar.
Swiatek downplayed her decisive margin in previous matches.
"The head-to-head might be to my side," she said, "but I can remember all these matches I played against her. Sometimes I was down, like, break in [the] third, She's an amazing player, and most of the times we played really tight matches."
Count Swiatek as a big fan of Muchova’s diverse and elegant game.
"Honestly, I love playing against her," Swiatek said. "I also love watching Karolina. Yeah, it's just nice to see someone who plays so smart and so smooth. She's like woman's Roger [Federer]."
No. 3 Elena Rybakina vs. Sonay Kartal
Head-to-head: 0-0.
Rybakina wasn’t at her best against No. 28 Marta Kostyuk in the third round, but managed a 6-4, 6-4 win. That sent her back into the Round of 16 for the second straight year.
Her greatest weapon is the serve; Rybakina leads all WTA Tour players with 117.
Kartal was a 2-6, 6-2, 6-3 winner over No. 15 Madison Keys.
"I think she honestly just played really well, served really well, and I thought she used her forehand to dictate and move the ball around really well," Keys said afterward. "Felt like I played a really good first set, and then the conditions changed a little bit, and I felt like I kind of lost my footing a little bit."
Kartal’s footing was exemplary. After she saved a match point in the second round against No. 20 Emma Navarro, Kartal rallied from a set down to beat the 2025 Australian Open champion. Kartal finds herself in the BNP Paribas Open Round of 16 for the second consecutive year.
No. 5 Jessica Pegula vs. No. 12 Belinda Bencic
Head-to-head: 4-0, Bencic. She has won all eight sets.
Pegula, down a set and a break, came hurtling back to win the last five games of the second set against No. 25 Jelena Ostapenko. Then she won the decider handily for the 4-6, 6-3, 6-2 win.
Since the start of last season, Pegula has produced the most comeback wins (13) of any WTA player. Among active players, only Svitolina has claimed more comeback wins (28) at WTA 1000 tournaments than Pegula (22).
After advancing, Pegula was asked about her two potential opponents -- Bencic and Elise Mertens -- against whom she is a combined 1-8.
"Tough opponents," Pegula said. "People, to be honest, that I don't have a great record against and I've actually really struggled against. That will be a challenge for me."
The record against Bencic is 0-4, but those matches all came between 2015-2023.
"I think I have become a much better player over the last six months," Pegula added, "and I'm excited to kind of challenge myself to hopefully overcome either one of them who I know will be really tough. And they've also had some really good results here, as well."
Since the turn of the century, only Swiatek (125) and Aryna Sabalenka (109) have more WTA 1000 match wins than Pegula’s 104.
Bencic, meanwhile, was a 6-2, 6-3 winner over Mertens. The 28-year-old mother has dropped only 10 games in four sets.
This is Bencic’s 10th main draw at Indian Wells. Since 2019, she’s compiled a 10-4 record here, with runs to the semifinals (2019) and quarterfinals (2025).
No. 9 Elina Svitolina vs. Katerina Siniakova
Head-to-head: 4-0, Svitolina. The most recent was a three-set victory two years ago at Indian Wells.
After that kind net cord on match point, Siniakova sat in her changeover chair and sobbed into a towel.
She had just beaten No. 8 seed Andreeva, the defending champion, 4-6, 7-6 (5), 6-3 in 2 hours and 48 minutes. It was her first Top 10 win at a WTA 1000 in more than two years, and her first comeback win over a Top 10 in more than seven years.
Siniakova, who is also playing doubles, said she was exhausted and an optimal recovery will be critical.
"I will try to be ready," she said. "I did ice bath, physio, trying to rest. I have [doubles] match tomorrow, so yeah, I will try to make it fast, but definitely against Elina, it's going to be another four-hours [long] match if I want to win."
Svitolina, on the other hand, was a fairly routine 6-4, 6-2 winner over Ashlyn Krueger. She’s made some nice runs here, reaching the semifinals in 2019 and the quarterfinals a year ago.