Indian Wells preview: Are we destined for another Sabalenka-Rybakina final?

INDIAN WELLS -- Australian Open champion Elena Rybakina is shaking up the status quo on the WTA Tour Driven by Mercedes-Benz after her 6-1, 7-6 (4) victory over Jessica Pegula on Thursday at the BNP Paribas Open.

The result will lift Rybakina to a career-high No. 2 in the PIF WTA Rankings next Monday. It also means that, for the first time in nearly four years, Iga Swiatek will not hold one of the top two spots. 

Rybakina closed out the quarterfinal round by denying Pegula an eighth consecutive WTA Tour semifinal, a streak that dated back to the 2025 US Open. Rybakina won 65 percent of her service points, struck seven aces and saved four of five break points.

Rybakina has now won 11 consecutive matches against Top 10 opponents, becoming only the fifth player since 2000 to accomplish the feat. The others are Venus Williams, Serena Williams, Justine Henin and Swiatek.

Now the focus shifts to Friday’s semifinals, which feature three of the season’s standout performers: No. 1 seed Aryna Sabalenka (15-1), No. 3 seed Rybakina (16-3) and Elina Svitolina (16-3). Sabalenka and Rybakina met earlier this year in the Australian Open final.

The fourth semifinalist is 21-year-old Linda Noskova, the No. 14 seed, who ended the run of red-hot qualifier Talia Gibson with a 6-2, 4-6, 6-2 victory.

In the spirit of March Madness, here’s what you need to know about this year’s final four:

No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka vs. No. 14 Linda Noskova

Head-to-head: 1-0 Sabalenka, who won the only previous career meeting against Noskova, in Adelaide’s 2023 final. The score was a credible 6-3, 7-6 (4), but it’s worth noting that Noskova was only 18 at the time.

Case for Sabalenka: Nineteen-year-old Victoria Mboko played her way into a first-set tiebreak in Thursday’s quarterfinal match, when Sabalenka threw a perfect game. Upping the amperage, Sabalenka won all seven points and ultimately came away with a 7-6 (0), 6-4 win.

Believe it or not, it was the first time in her career that Sabalenka pitched a tiebreak shutout, and it underlined why she is the best women’s player at the moment. Sabalenka, for the record, has a sizzling, almost surreal 25-3 record in tiebreaks since the beginning of the 2025 season.

“I'm not really thinking about the [tiebreak] record that I have,” Sabalenka told reporters. “I just try to play point by point, trying to stick to the game plan and stay aggressive, and then basically, yeah, take it one step at a time.”

Based on form and her vast experience, she’s the favorite in this semifinal match.

Sabalenka has won 15 of 16 matches this year, losing only to Rybakina in the Australian Open final. She’s the first person to win her first 15 matches of the season in straight sets since Johanna Larsson in 2015. Doing the math, Sabalenka has won 31 of 33 sets. 

It’s her increasingly dominant serve that’s driving these results. Sabalenka’s capable of flat, ferocious aces (she’s got 23 already at Indian Wells), but she’s also throwing in some high kickers for variety. The win over Mboko was her WTA-leading sixth without dropping a game on serve; she’s won 37 of 38 service games, saving 12 of 13 break points against her.

Case for Noskova: At 21, she came in with a modest 5-4 record but is 4-0 after defeating Gibson and, previously, Jessica Bouzas Maneiro, Sorana Cirstea and Alexandra Eala. Noskova is looking to equal her best career result, reaching the final last year at the WTA 1000 in Beijing, where she fell to Amanda Anisimova. This is her 11^th tour-level semifinal, and she’s won her past three -- Beijing, Tokyo and Prague.

Her serve can be an equalizer. Noskova had 13 aces against Gibson and she might need to exceed that against Sabalenka. She’s won 127 of 160 first-serve points (.794) -- the highest rate of any woman this year at Indian Wells.

“Aryna is definitely a big hitter,” Noskova said. “She’s been consistent for many years, so it’s going to be a big challenge. I’m going to go into the games with a clear head and just trusting my game and relying on my serve.” 

No. 3 Elena Rybakina vs. No. 9 Elina Svitolina

Head-to-head: 3-all. Svitolina won the most recent in Madrid last season, in straight sets.

Case for Rybakina: Svitolina will likely have to raise her level even further against Rybakina. Seven of Rybakina’s 11 consecutive wins over Top 10 players have come in straight sets, a reflection of how quickly she can take control of matches. 

Rybakina also has a long history of delivering against the tour’s elite. She is one of only four active players with a winning record against Top 10 opponents (35-27, .565), joining Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek and Venus Williams.

Outside of the Grand Slams, Indian Wells is the tournament where Rybakina has won the most matches, with 15.

Since returning as a mother, Rybakina said, Svitolina has changed up her game.

“I felt when she came back that she's playing more aggressive and she's trying to really step in on some shots, put pressure,” Rybakina said. “I think she's a dangerous opponent. She reads the game well.

“I will try to focus on my serve, because it's a weapon, and I really need to use it well, and then of course try to fight and find a way so hopefully I can win this match.”

Case for Svitolina: In 2019, Svitolina reached the semifinals in the desert but lost to eventual champion Bianca Andreescu. Seven years later, she’s back after a 6-2, 4-6, 6-4 win over Swiatek. Svitolina held a decisive edge in points, 94-82, and her defense contributed to Swiatek’s 42 unforced errors.

It was only Svitolina’s second win over Swiatek in six matches, but this was no random result. The 31-year-old mother was steadier in the big moments -- and now has more match wins this year (19) than any other woman. Svitolina is 6-0 in three-set matches this year.

Svitolina has a habit of playing well against the best players. This was her 11^th win against a player ranked in the top two, second only to Rybakina’s 14 in the past decade.

“It's not only against her, but I think just generally trying to be more aggressive, trying to go for my shots,” Svitolina told reporters. “There is no champion who is waiting for the mistakes, and you have to really try to set up yourself in a good position to attack.

“Yeah, I was feeling good. I was trying to really, you know, open up the court and try to take the advantage.”