Down match point, Sabalenka solves Rybakina to win first Indian Wells title

Third time’s the charm! After falling in the 2023 and 2025 Indian Wells finals, World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka saved championship point to defeat incoming World No. 2 Elena Rybakina 3-6, 6-3, 7-6 (6) for her first BNP Paribas Open final and 23rd WTA Driven by Mercedes-Benz title. It’s her second title of 2026 following Brisbane in January, and 10th WTA 1000 trophy.

Sabalenka avenges a 2023 Indian Wells final loss to the Kazakh and ends a streak of four consecutive WTA Tour final defeats when playing Rybakina, including the 2025 WTA Finals Riyadh championship and 2026 Australian Open.

"I guess it all comes with experience," Sabalenka said to press. "With so many finals that I have lost, they also teach me a lot of things that basically the game is never done till it's done. So if it's a match point, you still have a chance to get back into the game.

"I guess that's something that I learned to be mentally strong no matter what. And even though I lost so many big ones and so many painful ones, I would say, I'm still able to go out there, and even when things are not going well, I'm able to stay focused and I'm able to just to fight for it."

Overcoming a set and a break down as well as fending off Rybakina’s third-set heroics, Sabalenka came back from some first-set frustrations to solve one of her biggest obstacles in Rybakina in the two and half-hour match. It was the first Indian Wells final since 2012 to feature two top-3 players.

After her semifinal win over Linda Noskova, Sabalenka said she was “so done” with losing high-level finals, alluding to her previous 1-4 finals record vs. her rival such as their recent ones in Riyadh and Melbourne. She now improves to 23-20 in tour-level finals, and Sunday’s win marked her 20^th hard court title.

Ending in dramatic fashion

As a tennis fan, there isn't much more you could ask for in a third set. Down 5-4 in the deciding set, the moment had become now or never for Rybakina.

She hadn’t broken Sabalenka since the first game of the second set, and had failed to capitalize on her previous break points in the third set to get it back on serve. In finals, both players entered with a .500 win percentage in deciding sets, though Sabalenka had lost her previous four, including their meeting in Melbourne.

Pivotally, Rybakina notched the break in the last possible game she could, putting the match back on serve at 5-5. What ensued was arguably the game of the match -- and even the tournament maybe -- that took more than 12 minutes. Sabalenka had five break opportunities, but Rybakina saved all of them to take a 6-5 advantage. Sabalenka didn't get too rattled, however, holding to force the tiebreak.

In the tiebreak, Rybakina had championship point at 6-5 on her serve, but a Sabalenka signature cross-court backhand winner -- she had 29 winners Sunday -- kept the trophy hopes alive as the players switched ends of the court. Sabalenka then won the final two points to clinch the win, and a relief was evident in her celebration. 

"I think that match was very close, especially in the third set. It's roulette. You cannot say that someone did something extraordinary," Rybakina said to reporters. "I think I started the match well. Then my level of energy dropped a lot. Of course, losing in the second set, it gives confidence also to your opponent.

"I say, third set, it was (a) fight with the conditions, with the opponent, with yourself at some point. It wasn't easy with such heat."

Sabalenka bounces back from first-set frustrations

Rybakina entered the match 16-0 in 2026 after winning the first set, and only two of those matches ended up going to a deciding third. Rybakina had the upper hand initially Sunday, pulling away in the first set with a break at 4-2 and then holding at love to guarantee herself a chance to serve for the first set.

After doing just that, she opened the second set with a break as Sabalenka’s frustration continued to mount, evident with a small racquet smash at her bench during the set changeover. 

That early break was the turning point, as Sabalenka turned her anger into fuel. She broke Rybakina’s serve at love immediately in the next game and held in the subsequent service game that took four deuces.

Compared to the first set, Rybakina seemed to target Sabalenka’s weapon, her backhand, much more in the second. Rybakina’s shot placement in the second set favored Sabalenka’s backhand 44% of the time, and was a factor into her second set win. 

Following a double fault to give Sabalenka a free break at 3-1, Rybakina could not retain the rhythm she displayed in the first set, often hitting several forehands into the net or out-wide, though many of those were forced by Sabalenka's service game and powerful returns. 

In hindsight, Sabalenka's early break at 2-1 in the third set seemed to be the most crucial, though both players had three breaks on Sunday. Rybakina had triple game point, leading 40-0, but Sabalenka won five straight points, showcasing a some backhand winners and a cleverly played drop shot during the stretch. 

From there up until Rybakina's aforementioned late break, both players displayed their dominant serve games, trading holds for six consecutive games. Statistically on serve, they were both neck-and-neck as Rybakina had 12 aces to Sabalenka's 10, and both players won about 65% of their first-service points. Ultimately, the match's difference would be the tiebreak. 

The victory represents a perfect ending to a memorable two weeks in Tennis Paradise for Sabalenka. From welcoming a new puppy, Ash, and getting engaged to longtime boyfriend Georgios Frangulis, Sabalenka’s Indian Wells trophy was the only thing that could make it even better.

The tour now heads to Miami, where Sabalenka enters as the reigning champion.

"Maybe a couple drinks just to cheer ourselves," Sabalenka said on celebration plans. "And that's it, because the schedule is really tight and we're on to the next one, and I cannot relax too much, because I'm defending champion there, and also, it's Miami. I love being there, playing there, so I want to do well there, as well."