We're down to the final four at Roland Garros, and it's one of the unlikeliest Grand Slam semifinals in recent memory.
How unlikely is it? Here is some historical perspective.
- For the first time, a Grand Slam semifinal will feature four players born in the 21st century.
- For the first time in the Open Era, a French Open semifinal will feature two left-handers.
- For the first time since the 2021 US Open, there are no major winners in a Grand Slam semifinal.
- Only one of the four semifinalists (Mirra Andreeva) had made a Grand Slam semifinal before.
- Maja Chwalinska is just the second qualifier in the Open Era to reach the Roland Garros women's singles semifinals.
Ahead of Thursday's semifinals, in which Marta Kostyuk will play Andreeva and Diana Shnaider will take on Chwalinska, we look at the most pressing questions facing the semifinalists.
Can Kostyuk continue her dominance in the face of heavy emotions and turmoil?
What a tournament it's been for Kostyuk, who's run her win streak to 17 and upset four-time French Open champion Iga Swiatek and Elina Svitolina to make her first career Grand Slam semifinal.
And she's done it in the face of continued attacks on her home country, ignoring news notifications at night so she can sleep peacefully and texting family and friends before getting on court to ensure that they're safe. The emotion all came pouring out after her win over Svitolina, in which she paid tribute to her home country and commended Svitolina, her countrywoman, for her remarkable tenacity and fight.
Kostyuk has handled the devastating situation improbably well, powering through unthinkable grief while simultaneously holding the WTA Tour's longest winning streak and establishing herself as the player to beat.
Make no mistake, Kostyuk is here to win -- but she made it clear that this run, and her presence, is about much more than tennis.
"With everything that's happening, being here is a real blessing," she said. "[Winning is] not the most important thing for me. I'm here to represent Ukraine."
Will it be third time's a charm for Andreeva against Kostyuk?
As the eighth seed, Andreeva is now the favorite, on paper, to win her first career Grand Slam. In addition to the added pressure and expectations that come with that, the 19-year-old now has to play Kostyuk, the hottest player on the WTA Tour Driven by Mercedes-Benz over the last two months.
Not only has Kostyuk won 17 consecutive matches on clay, but she's also beaten Andreeva twice this season. The first was a 7-6 (7), 6-3 win in Brisbane in January. And a month ago, in Madrid, Kostyuk against beat Andreeva in straight sets to capture her first career WTA 1000 title.
Kostyuk overpowered Andreeva in that first match, hitting 34 winners to Andreeva's 10. And in the Madrid final, Kostyuk got off to a fast start and dominated the first set with her serve and forehand, winning 89 percent of her first-serve points and hitting eight forehand winners. Andreeva, who has lost just one set all tournament and has breezed in her last three matches, will need to get off to a quick start in this one.
Does Chwalinska have enough left in the tank to pull off another upset (or two)?
If the majority of the pressure is on Andreeva, the least amount has to be on Chwalinska, who came into this tournament ranked No. 114 in the PIF WTA Rankings and had to come through qualifying to get into the main draw.
But that means it's been a long tournament for the 24-year-old -- 16 days since her first qualifying match -- and lots of time on court. Chwalinska has played eight matches to get to the final four. And yet, she hasn't looked fatigued and has hardly even looked challenged. In her eight wins in Paris she's dropped just one set, and appears to be loose and confident as she looks to become the first qualifier to make the Roland Garros final.
"Obviously I'm a bit tired," she told reporters after being Anna Kalinskaya on Wednesday, "but that's normal. But it's a Grand Slam, so I feel like the adrenaline is very high. Like, I can feel terrible, but then I just step on the court and it's a different story. Doesn't matter how I feel. It's going to be OK."
How will Shnaider handle the shift from underdog to favorite?
Shnaider has been an underdog in the previous two matches, first against Madison Keys and then against Sabalenka, in the most impressive win of her career -- a 3-6, 7-5, 6-0 thriller in which Shnaider came from a set and a double break down.
"First time playing Aryna, super nervous," the 25th seed said in her on-court interview after the win. "Quarterfinals for the first time, definitely a lot of nerves."
There will be a different set of nerves against Chwalinska in the semifinals on Thursday. Unlike against Sabalenka, where few people expected her to pull off the win, she'll be the heavy favorite against the World No. 114 in her first career Grand Slam semifinal. Her last two matches were lengthy three-setters, with Shnaider finding another gear late in each and punctuating the matches with bagels. She'll hope for a more straightforward path in this one, and will perhaps take some comfort in the fact that she beat Chwalinska in their only previous meeting, though that match was four years ago.