analysis

Breaking down the unlikely quarterfinal matchups in Beijing

Author: Brad Kallet
analysis
4m read 07 Oct 2026 1d ago
Elina_Svitolina_-_China_Open_2026_-_Day_8-DSC_1093B
Jimmie48/WTA

At the season’s most recent Grand Slam, the US Open, the top five seeds reached the quarterfinals. The top four advanced to the semifinals, with the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds meeting for the title.

Beijing has gone in the other direction. At the second-to-last 1000-level event of the season on the WTA Tour Driven by Mercedes-Benz, the top two seeds are already out, and only one of the top five remains with the quarterfinals set.

Among the final eight is an unseeded home favorite, a pair of Grand Slam champions, several tried-and-true veterans and an up-and-comer having the best tournament of her career.

Here's what you need to know about the matchups ahead of the China Open quarterfinals.

Zheng Qinwen vs. [6] Elina Svitolina

First meeting

Zheng is becoming awfully familiar with three-set matches. She won four straight three-setters to reach the US Open quarterfinals, then lost another three-set match there.

The pattern has continued at her home tournament in Beijing, where all four of her matches have gone the distance. The unseeded World No. 54 has come back from a set down twice and upset No. 15 seed Anna Kalinskaya and No. 18 seed Marie Bouzkova. On Wednesday, she defeated Alina Charaeva 6-1, 2-6, 6-4.

It's been a smoother, and less physically demanding, tournament for Elina Svitolina. The sixth seed has played one fewer match after receiving a first-round bye, and has won six consecutive sets with ease after dropping her first to Katerina Siniakova last week.

Surprisingly, despite both players being veterans with a track record of success, this will be their first career meeting. Zheng will surely be buoyed by her home crowd as she looks to make her first semifinal since June 2025, at Queen's Club. Svitolina most recently made the semis in Toronto, in August, and is in pursuit of her third title of the year.

[13] Elise Mertens vs. [8] Iga Swiatek

Swiatek leads the head-to-head 2-0

Elise Mertens has had to work for her quarterfinal berth. Her first-round match against Katie Volynets was a doozy. Mertens was in total control, leading 6-0, 3-0, with four opportunities to take a 4-0 lead in that second set.

But before she could comprehend what went wrong, she found herself down a break in the third. She rallied to win that match 6-0, 4-6, 7-5 in just under three hours. The World No. 19 bore down late in her next match as well, coming from 2-0 down in the decider to beat Jelena Ostapenko.

Surprisingly, her most comfortable win of the tournament came on Wednesday against Coco Gauff, whom she had never beaten in five tries. Mertens closed the match out strong, winning 10 of her last 11 service points and closing out the 6-3, 6-3 win with an ace.

Iga Swiatek had a close call in her second match, somehow finding a way to beat Donna Vekic after trailing 6-4, 5-2. But her fourth-round match against Iva Jovic was never in doubt, an authoritative 6-1, 6-3 win in which "everything was working," as Swiatek accurately put it.

Swiatek has never dropped a set to Mertens. In their lone match on hard courts, in Miami last year, Swiatek beat Mertens 7-6 (2), 6-1.

[19] Ekaterina Alexandrova vs. [4] Mirra Andreeva

Alexandrova leads the head-to-head 2-0

Ekaterina Alexandrova has pulled off a couple of big upsets in Beijing, coming from a set down against 11th seed Diana Shnaider and following that up with a commanding win over fifth-seeded Linda Noskova. Alexandrova wasn't broken against the Wimbledon champion, dropping just four games in a little over an hour.

She'll face a well-rested and in-form Andreeva, who lost her first set in Beijing to Yuan Yue. It's been smooth sailing since then, though. She rallied to win the next 12 games for the three-set win, the rare double bagel on the back end, then breezed past unseeded Polina Kudermetova and Daria Snigur to book her spot in the quarterfinals.

After the 6-2, 6-2 win over Snigur, Andreeva took to the practice courts -- not her choice, she clarified -- to work on returns. She'll certainly need a strong return game against Alexandrova, who hit six aces and won 88 percent of her first-serve points against Noskova.

Andreeva will be the favorite, considering her higher ranking and more recent success, but Alexandrova comes in with the confidence of a 2-0 head-to-head advantage. This will be their first meeting on hard courts, though. Alexandrova beat Andreeva in straight sets on clay last year, and beat her again on grass, in Bad Homburg, back in June. 

[7] Karolina Muchova vs. [26] Nikola Bartunkova 

First meeting

What a fun encounter this should be between two wildly talented Czechs, one an established veteran and the other a rising up-and-comer.

Karolina Muchova and Nikola Bartunkova have both taken dramatic paths to the Beijing quarterfinals. After Muchova beat Katie Boulter in straight sets, she came from a set down to knock off Liudmila Samsonova.

But that was just an appetizer for her next match, a nearly-three-hour marathon against Naomi Osaka that came down to a third-set tiebreak. Muchova was down breaks in both the first and third sets, and eventually clinched the match on her ninth match point. Her much-improved backhand let her down late in the third set, but she stayed aggressive with it, firing a backhand winner down the line to set up the ninth match point.

As for Bartunkova, she's fresh off the biggest win of her career, a 6-4, 6-3 upset of second-seeded Aryna Sabalenka. She then avoided the post-upset hangover, beating Sinja Kraus 6-0, 4-6, 6-3 to book a spot in a WTA 1000 quarterfinal for the first time.

Despite their 10-year age gap, and having never played on tour, they know each others' games well. They train at the same club in Prague and are frequent practice partners. Expect plenty of finesse, touch and exceptional shot-making in this one.