Ningbo draw: Rybakina returns; Kostyuk, Swiatek still in WTA Finals hunt
Twelve months ago, Elena Rybakina came to the BNB Ningbo Open needing to win the title to keep her bid of reaching the year-end WTA Finals alive. The Kazakh duly did so, a triumph that eventually propelled her into the eighth and final spot at the year-end event a short time later.
This year, Rybakina arrives in Ningbo in a much different position, as the World No. 1 and already qualified for the WTA Finals Indian Wells -- though her Asian Swing efforts have been curtailed by an ongoing foot injury that forced her withdrawal from the Dongfeng · Voyah Wuhan Open. But Iga Swiatek and Marta Kostyuk, the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds respectively at the WTA 500 event, are still in the hunt for the final qualifying spot -- and hope to close the gap on the idle Karolina Muchova -- currently No. 7 in the Race -- with strong runs.
Below is a full breakdown of each half of the draw, including first-round matches to keep an eye on, potential semifinal showdowns and Rybakina's path to defend her title. To see the full draw, click here.
Top half
After a first-round bye, Rybakina will face either Cristina Bucsa or a qualifier in the first match of her title defense. But her road to back-to-back titles only gets more complicated from there, with No. 4 seed Iva Jovic, No. 5 seed Belinda Bencic, No. 6 seed Diana Shnaider -- and the unseeded Maja Chwalinska, Alexandra Eala, and Jasmine Paolini -- all in her half.
First-round matches to keep an eye on
[5] Belinda Bencic vs. Jelena Ostapenko: These two players come into their fourth career head-to-head meeting at different points in the final weeks of their seasons. Since withdrawing from her slated quarterfinal match against Coco Gauff in Toronto on Aug. 11, Bencic is 1-4 -- while Ostapenko just reached the semifinals in Wuhan, where she upset both Jessica Pegula and Diana Shnaider.
Alexandra Eala vs. Diane Parry: Both young talents are looking to win their first match since the US Open. Eala will look to snap a three-match skid, while Monterrey champion Parry has also lost her last four matches.
Remaining first-round matches: Cristina Bucsa vs. Qualifier/Lucky Loser, Maja Chwalinska vs. Qualifier/Lucky Loser, Jasmine Paolini vs. Qualifier/Lucky Loser, [6] Diana Shnaider vs. Qualifier/Lucky Loser
Potential semifinal showdown
[1] Elena Rybakina vs. [4] Iva Jovic: After Rybakina beat Jovic twice last year, the American teenager could hope to show off just how much she's improved with a projected semifinal meeting against Rybakina. While Jovic did not win a set in either of those matches, she's played much more post-US Open than Rybakina -- which included a successful title defense herself in Guadalajara, as well as back-to-back Round of 16 efforts in Beijing and Wuhan.
Bottom half
The chase between Kostyuk and Swiatek will heat up in the bottom half, as players including No. 7 seed Elise Mertens, No. 8 seed Sorana Cirstea, and unseeded Ekaterina Alexandrova will be among those looking to cool off their Indian Wells bid.
First-round matches to keep an eye on
[7] Elise Mertens vs. Leylah Fernandez: Mertens has beaten Fernandez in two of their three previous meetings -- all of which have come on hard courts. But they haven't played in more than a year -- and with both in form in the Asian Swing, a first three-set affair could be on the cards.
Sara Bejlek vs. Wang Xiyu: The first career match between these two, played this summer in Toronto, was a barnburner won by Bejlek, 6–3, 4–6, 7–5.
Remaining first-round matches: Dara Kasatkina vs. Qualifier/Lucky Loser, Guo Hanyu vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova, [8] Sorana Cirstea vs. Qualifier/Lucky Loser, Marie Bouzkova vs. Qualifier/Lucky Loser
Potential semifinal showdown
[2] Iga Swiatek vs. [3] Marta Kostyuk: The sixth career match between Kostyuk and Swiatek could be on the cards for the semifinals -- and the third this year. After Kostyuk beat Swiatek on her way to the semifinals at Roland Garros in June, Swiatek got revenge with a three-set comeback in Toronto. But the winner of this match could be in pole position to continue to challenge for a year-end Indian Wells spot, while the loser's climb in the season's final weeks will prove tougher.
