If Naomi Osaka can win the US Open in front of an animated New York crowd - as she did in 2018 by beating Serena Williams in an emotional final - she's capable of landing the title again in an empty Arthur Ashe Stadium. Providing of course she can recover sufficiently from the hamstring injury that forced her to pull out of the Western & Southern Open final.
Playing a Grand Slam without a crowd is going to feel weird. But just as everyone around the world is quickly adapting to the new normal, of never leaving home without a mask, players will quickly adjust to this novel way of staging a major.
When Osaka hits a winner in New York City, she'll be greeted by the sound of silence, apart from perhaps a smattering of applause from her team and maybe from a tiny number of people who are accredited to be in the stadium. But I don't imagine Osaka will be that affected by the lack of a crowd. She has shown in the past that she can shut out the New York crowd, and she also wouldn't have been feeding off the New Yorkers' energy in the same way that Serena has done most years.
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The lack of a crowd could be a negative factor for Serena, who would usually have her emotions activated by the spectators. Williams thrives on playing in New York and having the crowd on her side. This year, she'll have to do without.
Even without spectators, players are still going to be psyched for the occasion, and they're still going to feel the pressure, even if it will be quite different this year.
I've heard suggestions that we should be putting an asterisk next to the winner's name. But while six of the Top 10 will be missing from New York - including the World No.1 Ashleigh Barty, second-ranked Simona Halep and the defending champion Bianca Andreescu - I don't think this event should have an asterisk. Just imagine if those same six players were absent because of injuries. Would we then be saying that we should be putting an asterisk against the tournament? No, we would just be saying that the field is slightly weaker. Anyway, you still have to win seven matches, and potentially even beat three or four Top 10 players along the way, which wouldn't be an easy or devalued win.
Going into the US Open, Osaka had been playing some strong tennis until the injury. You would think that such a long break would be more challenging for a player like Osaka, who hits the ball hard and is a creator, rather than for someone who plays a more defensive style of tennis. But Osaka has been looking pretty match tough.
The long break this season wouldn't have helped Serena, who so far hasn't played her best tennis leading up to this major. I know that I wouldn't have wanted it at her age. You can see how badly she wants to win a record-equalling 24th Grand Slam singles title but that desire seems to be stopping her from playing her best tennis. There's so much on the line and she knows that (she'll turn 39 just days after the US Open) time is definitely not her friend.
For the younger players, such as Osaka, this break may have been the best thing for them, as they would have had a chance to work on their games and their fitness. Lockdown was a great opportunity to get in even better shape and try out different training methods to maybe add extra mph to your serve or to improve your flexibility or maybe work on the mental side with some meditation. They had the chance to work on all aspects to help them in the long term.
Osaka's stance at the Western & Southern Open - in protest at the shooting of Jacob Blake and 'racial injustice' - was amazing. She withdrew from her semi-final, which prompted a pause in play for the day. After consultation with the WTA, she later agreed to play in the rescheduled match the following day, but she had already shown her willingness to sacrifice match play before the US Open because she feels so strongly.
A few months ago, Osaka went to Minnesota to where George Floyd was killed. She wanted to see and absorb it for herself - that’s commitment. Taking this step at the Western & Southern Open - and showing she was willing to concede - was nothing but admirable.
Osaka's not afraid to speak out now. Most people shy away from taking a political stance because they don't want to upset others. She's willing to do the right thing whatever the consequences are for her tennis career. As a human being, the consequences are that she's shown herself to be a hero, a trailblazer, and a human rights campaigner, and that's fantastic to see. Osaka has a platform now and when she speaks out, people pay attention. Her impact is massive.
I'm hoping Osaka feels good about herself after doing the right thing. She's shown strength, and I'm sure she'll get extra support from the public in the long term, but of course this time they won't be in the stadium to watch her play.
