Sabalenka, Swiatek on track for a French Open semifinal, but don’t pencil it in yet

Coming into this fortnight at Roland Garros, Iga Swiatek was clearly not herself. After some uncharacteristic early exits on red clay this season, questions swirled about her chances of winning a fourth straight French Open title.

When she lost eight of the first nine games to Elena Rybakina in their fourth-round match -- Swiatek later said it felt like she was playing World No. 1 Jannik Sinner --  skepticism peaked. 

And then Swiatek did what she usually does in Paris, rallied to win. Where some might have taken the field against Swiatek going in, the tide appears to have turned. After four victories, she’s now won a staggering 25 straight at the French Open. 

“She has great intensity,” Rybakina said. “I think she has all the chances.”

Swiatek was unusually emotional after converting her second match point.

“I think I needed that kind of win to feel these feelings that I’m able to win under pressure,” she told reporters. “Even if it’s not going the right way, you can still turn the match around to win it.”

For the first time since 2005, all of the Top 8 seeds made it to the fourth round at Roland Garros. On Tuesday, three of them will be in action in two sensational quarterfinal matchups.

We break it down:

No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka vs. No. 8 Zheng Qinwen (12 p.m. local, 6 a.m. ET)

Head-to-head: Sabalenka, 6-1. But (and it’s a big but), the last time they played, less than three weeks ago in Rome, Zheng was the 6-4, 6-3 winner in the quarterfinals.

So here’s the conundrum: How much weight should we give that recent match in Rome, versus Sabalenka’s terrific track record against Zheng?

Sabalenka, who handled No. 16 Amanda Anisimova 7-5, 6-3, gave it a pretty good spin.

“I have to say I was pretty exhausted in Rome,” she told reporters. “Honestly, I was playing the tournament constantly thinking I shouldn’t be playing and I needed a little rest before Roland Garros. But I think maybe because courts are a little bit slower, so she has a bit more time to prepare her shots, but now I'm fresh and ready to go.”

Once upon a time, consistency was not Sabalenka’s calling card. Now? Sabalenka is the first player to reach the quarterfinals for 10 consecutive women’s Grand Slam main-draw appearances since Serena Williams from 2014-17. Since 2021, she’s made 12 major quarters, a number exceeded in that time only by Novak Djokovic.

Zheng, meanwhile, is carrying the Olympic torch in her heart.

Her heart-stopping 7-6 (5), 1-6, 6-3 victory over No. 19 Liudmila Samsonova was her 10^th consecutive win at Roland Garros, going back to last summer’s Olympic Games

“It is true I won the gold medal last year, but I don’t consider myself as a defending champion at Roland Garros because it’s Swiatek who won Roland Garros last year,” Zheng said. “Of course, I beat her last time, so I have a lot of confidence on clay court. 

“Forgot what happened last year, but just fight at this moment in Roland Garros.”

Serving could be the difference. Zheng survived eight double faults by hitting 10 aces against Samsonova, while Sabalenka ripped 11 aces against Anisimova, her highest total of the year.

No. 5 Iga Swiatek vs. No. 13 Elina Svitolina (To follow)

Head-to-head: 3-1, Swiatek, winning at Rome 2021, Dubai 2024 and Miami 2025, but losing the only Grand Slam encounter at 2023 Wimbledon.

Swiatek’s 1-6, 6-3, 7-5 comeback victory over Rybakina thrust her into some rare company. Those 25 straight wins equaled Monica Seles’ (1990-1996) total and left her four short of Chris Evert’s record of 29. She has the second-best winning percentage ever at the French Open and a win against Svitolina will bring her even with Margaret Court at 95.1 percent.

On Saturday evening, Swiatek celebrated her 24^th birthday and, in the tradition of Marie Antoinette, posted pictures of various cakes and candles. The win against Rybakina appears to have brought the fire back.

“For sure it’s a great confirmation for me,” Swiatek said. “Obviously it’s great to also have full control over the match, but against great players, it’s not always going to be possible. I’m happy that I fought, and I also problem-solved on court.”

She wasn’t the only one. Svitolina saved three match points in a rousing 4-6, 7-6 (6), 6-1 comeback victory over No. 4 Jasmine Paolini. Afterward, she stopped short of calling it one of the biggest wins of her career.

“Like, for example, I had a great win against Serena in Olympics in Rio,” Svitolina said. “Also, beating Rybakina to win bronze medal in Tokyo. This was a massive comeback as well for me to get that medal.

“But I rate it pretty high because, for sure, winning from the match points, it's special, especially at the Grand Slam.”

The last time she beat the No. 4 player in a Grand Slam -- Swiatek two years ago at Wimbledon. This is Svitolina’s fifth trip to the quarterfinals at Roland Garros. 

She’s aching to take the next step.