Sabalenka’s No. 1 ranking is on the line at the US Open. Here’s who can overtake her
Aryna Sabalenka is closing in on a significant milestone: 100 consecutive weeks at No. 1. But getting there would require a third consecutive US Open title.
Sabalenka will reach 99 straight weeks atop the rankings by the end of the tournament. But with 2,000 points from last year’s title coming off her ranking and three players positioned to overtake her, extending that streak another week is no longer entirely in her hands.
Elena Rybakina has been closing the gap for months. After finishing the 2025 with title runs at Ningbo and the WTA Finals -- accounting for 2,000 ranking points -- she has added two championship runs this season, including her second major title at the Australian Open. Rybakina enters the US Open at No. 1 on the WTA Finals Leaderboard.
Rybakina, 27, has had several opportunities to overtake Sabalenka this summer but has not quite reached No. 1. She advanced to the final in Toronto and the quarterfinals in Cincinnati, where both her runs ended against Iga Swiatek.
Now Rybakina will arrive in New York with her clearest path yet. She could become No. 1 without winning a match. And if she reaches the semifinals, no one can prevent her from taking the top ranking.
Two Americans near the top of the rankings have far less room for error, but both remain in contention. Coco Gauff enters the US Open after winning her first title of the season in Cincinnati, while runner-up Jessica Pegula continues a strong summer that included runner-up appearances in Washington, D.C. and Cincinnati.
For Gauff and Pegula, the equation is the same: Win the US Open and hope Rybakina loses before the semifinals. Either would become No. 1 for the first time.
Here is the complete breakdown:
Bottom line: Rybakina can become No. 1 without playing a match at the US Open, provided Sabalenka, Pegula and Gauff do not win the title. If Rybakina reaches the semifinals, she secures the No. 1 ranking regardless of all other results.
Elena Rybakina
--Does not need to win a match to become No. 1 if Sabalenka, Pegula and Gauff do not win the title.
--Secures the No. 1 ranking by reaching the semifinals, regardless of all other results.
Aryna Sabalenka
--Must win the title and have Rybakina lose before the semifinals to remain No. 1.
--Will have spent 99 consecutive weeks and 107 weeks overall at No. 1 by the end of the tournament.
--Would reach 100 consecutive weeks when the post-US Open rankings are released if she remains No. 1.
Jessica Pegula
--Must win the title and have Rybakina lose before the semifinals to become No. 1 for the first time.
Coco Gauff
--Must win the title and have Rybakina lose before the semifinals to become No. 1 for the first time.
