analysis

Washington draw: Pegula, Keys and Osaka, Svitolina could meet in DC semifinals

Author: Cole Bambini
analysis
3m read 25 Jul 2026 2h ago
Pegula, DC 2025
Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images

The Mubadala DC Open draw is set. 

Washington 2019 champion Jessica Pegula leads the pack as the top seed, followed by Elina Svitolina, Naomi Osaka and Diana Shnaider, all of whom received byes into the second round.

Anna Kalinskaya, Madison Keys, reigning champion Leylah Fernandez and Emma Navarro round out the seeded players DC in the first 500 event of the WTA Tour Driven by Mercedes-Benz' Hard-Court swing. 

Below is a full breakdown of each half of the draw, including first-round matches to keep an eye on, potential semifinal showdowns and Fernandez' path to defend her title. To see the full draw, click here.

Top half

First-round matches to keep an eye on 

[6] Madison Keys vs. Liudmila Samsonova: Keys returns to Washington for the first time in three seasons and faces a stern test in 2022 champion Liudmila Samsonova in the opening round. Keys has yet to advance past the quarterfinals in this event, but will start her campaign against an opponent that she has won five of their six meetings. 

Anastasia Potapova vs. [WC] Venus Williams: Williams, one of four Grand Slam champions competing, visits the city where her comeback started one year ago after she returned to tour following a 16-month layoff. Slated to compete in both draws this week, Williams faces Anastasia Potapova in the first round of singles, still in search of her first main-draw singles win this year. Potapova has yet to win a single main draw match in Washington, but is having a strong 2026 season overall.

Remaining first-round matches: Magdalena Frech vs. Ann Li; Janice Tjen vs. Qualifier (TBD); [5] Anna Kalinskaya vs. Qualifier (TBD); Wang Xinyu vs. Qualifier (TBD)

Byes: [1] Jessica Pegula, [4] Diana Shnaider

Potential semifinal showdown

[1] Jessica Pegula vs. [6] Madison Keys: In the final four, Pegula and Keys could square off in another edition of the Player's Box Podcast rivalry. So far this year they've played twice, with both matches at the Australian Open and Berlin going to the top-seeded Pegula. Their aggressive, hard-hitting play-styles are similar and always entertain regardless of the surface. Pegula holds a 3-2 lead in the head-to-head. 

Bottom half

First-round matches to keep an eye on 

Alexandra Eala vs. [WC] Zheng Qinwen: Eala will make her debut in Washington against a new opponent in an experienced Zheng. They've never played each other on tour, but this is an intriguing matchup as Zheng, a Washington wild card, is continuing to rebuild her ranking while Eala gets back on the hard courts after a solid grass season. 

[8] Emma Navarro vs. [WC] Sofia Kenin: An all-American first-rounder is set in the bottom half of the draw, featuring Navarro who's been continuing to rediscover her form as of late and Kenin, a former Grand Slam champion. Kenin has the upper hand in the head-to-head, winning the lone previous meeting in three sets at San Diego three years ago.  

Remaining first-round matches: Clara Tauson vs. Elisabetta Cocciaretto; [WC] Ashlyn Krueger vs. Katie Boulter; [7] Leylah Fernandez vs. Magda Linette; Cristina Bucsa vs. Qualifier (TBD)

Byes: [2] Elina Svitolina, [3] Naomi Osaka

Potential semifinal showdown

[2] Elina Svitolina vs. [3] Naomi Osaka: Svitolina has two titles to her name this season, including one on hard court, and could face Osaka in the semifinals. This time last year, Osaka found strong results in the Hard-Court Swing, and it's a surface she's been quite successful on with her four Grand Slam titles. All eight of their meetings have been on hard court, and Osaka has a slight 5-3 edge, including their Montreal quarterfinal meeting in 2025.

Champions Reel: How Leylah Fernandez won Washington 2025

Fernandez' path for back-to-back? 

Fernandez sits in the bottom half of the draw, and will open her title defense campaign against Linette, who's pulled some upsets this season on hard court. Should Fernandez advance, the Canadian would then face either Zheng or Eala before potentially encountering Svitolina in the last eight. 

In the semifinals, based on seedings, Osaka and Navarro could be among those to reach the final four. If Fernandez can return to the championship match, she'd potentially have to defend her crown against Pegula, Shnaider, Kalinskaya or Keys, among others.

"I definitely think back on those memories, on those feelings, the positive feelings, the fight, the energy that the crowd brought," Fernandez said to press during her media day Saturday. "I try to use that to my advantage and try to go back into that state, and hopefully I can reproduce that here.

"But I do know that one year is a long time, so a lot can change. I'm just going to try to go out there with the mindset of figuring things out and enjoy my time competing in D.C., where I've had some good success here."

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