The Nancy Richey Group is the first to kick off the 2022 WTA Finals Fort Worth. On Monday, Guadalajara champion Jessica Pegula will reprise that tournament's final against Maria Sakkari before two-time major finalist Ons Jabeur faces Aryna Sabalenka. Here's how those matches break down.
[3] Jessica Pegula (USA) vs. [5] Maria Sakkari (GRE)
Head-to-head: Sakkari leads 3-2 (2-2 on hard courts; Pegula leads 2-1 in 2022)
WTA Finals history: First appearance for Pegula; second appearance for Sakkari, who reached the 2021 semifinals
1. Pegula has turned around their rivalry -- a mark of her improvement. Before this year, the American had not defeated Sakkari in two meetings, including squandering six match points in the 2021 Miami fourth round. But Pegula has won two of their three 2022 meetings, both of which were significant.
At the Australian Open, her 7-6(0), 6-3 fourth-round win against Sakkari meant that she returned to the quarterfinals for a second straight year -- proof that her 2021 run hadn't been a one-off. Just over a week ago in Guadalajara, the final spelled opportunity for two consistent Top 10 players who only owned one WTA 250 title apiece. Pegula seized the day, and her first WTA 1000 trophy, 6-2, 6-3.
2. Pegula has gone from strength to strength, but has Sakkari turned her form around? Pegula's ascent from No.18 at the end of 2021 to her Top 3 debut this week has been the result of delivering reliable performances that have also knocked off one career milestone after another. A first WTA 1000 final in Madrid was followed by a her first WTA 1000 title in Guadalajara.
After her Australian Open quarterfinal repeat, she Pegula reached the same round for the first time at Roland Garros and the US Open. After winning Guadalajara, Pegula noted that at last she felt like the main character rather than playing a role in someone else's story.
Road to the WTA Finals: Jessica Pegula | Maria Sakkari
That kind of gradually improving consistency was a hallmark of Sakkari's 2021, but something that eluded the Greek in 2022. Between Indian Wells and the US Open, her record was just 13-13 and her struggle for form all too apparent. Sakkari's autumn burst, reaching finals in Parma and Guadalajara, enabled her to qualify at the last minute for her second consecutive WTA Finals. Has it also enabled her to locate the confidence that had been lacking for much of the season?
3. Can Sakkari disrupt Pegula's aggressive patterns? Pegula's success has been centred around reliably executing the fundamentals of the game at a high level: serves, one-two punches, returns in court. Will Sakkari try to go toe-to-toe with her opponent and match her first-strike aggression -- or will she seek to disrupt it with a grinding approach?
[2] Ons Jabeur (TUN) vs. [7] Aryna Sabalenka
Head-to-head: Sabalenka leads 2-1 (1-0 on hard courts)
WTA Finals history: First appearance for Jabeur; second appearance for Sabalenka, who fell in the round-robin stage in 2021
1. Jabeur is coming in cold -- but fresh. After a strenuous breakthrough season in which she reached her first two major finals at Wimbledon and the US Open, Jabeur has competed just once since the latter -- at home in Tunisia, where she reached the quarterfinals of the inaugural and historic Jasmin Open Monastir.
"I was pretty tired with all the matches that I played, and I said that I would do a mini preparation and get prepared. The main reason is to prepare for this tournament," Jabeur told press in Fort Worth, citing over-playing as a factor in the injuries that hampered her start of 2022.
Jabeur's decision to forgo match play was a calculated risk. But she's hardly lacked for it throughout 2022. Freshness and lack of fatigue, particularly against a field who have mostly been grinding through the autumn, could well pay off.
2. Sabalenka can turn on her form from nowhere. If the hallmark of Sabalenka's 2021 was a newfound consistency that enabled her to rise to No.2, her 2022 has been characterised by willing herself into form out of seemingly dire straits. She has been beset by serving yips, racking up 80 double faults in her first five matches of the year, then another 67 in her first four matches of the North American summer.
Road to the WTA Finals: Ons Jabeur | Aryna Sabalenka
But Sabalenka has battled through to find her best tennis when least expected -- on clay, where she reached the Stuttgart final and Rome semifinal, and then consecutive semifinals in Cincinnati and the US Open. Her form may be chaotic, but neither the lethality of her highest level nor her willingness to scrap and fight to find it are in doubt.
3. The head-to-head indicates Sabalenka can overpower Jabeur. The Tunisian won their first encounter in three sets at Roland Garros 2020, but Sabalenka responded with two straight-set wins during 2021 -- including a 6-4, 6-3 dismantling in the Wimbledon quarterfinals where Jabeur had few answers to Sabalenka's power. They have not played since that match, though it's been Jabeur on the upward curve. Will her improvements be enough?
Head to Head
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In doubles, the Rosie Casals Group will get under way. No.1 seeds Barbora Krejcikova and Katerina Siniakova will face No.8 seeds Desirae Krawczyk and Demi Schuurs, while Pegula will return alongside Coco Gauff as the No.3 seeds, playing No.6 seeds Xu Yifan and Yang Zhaoxuan.
Krejcikova and Siniakova have never faced Krawczyk and Schuurs as a team, though the Czechs are 3-0 against Krawczyk with different partners, and 7-1 against Schuurs.
Gauff and Pegula are 1-1 against Xu and Yang, with both encounters coming this year. The Chinese duo were 6-2, 6-3 victors in the Dubai quarterfinals, but the American pair avenged that result 7-5, 6-0 in the San Diego first round.
