US Open semifinals: Who of the top four will play in the season's last Grand Slam final?
NEW YORK -- We're down to the final four in New York, and it's only fitting the top four seeds will compete for a spot in the 2026 US Open final on Thursday.
Two-time defending champion and No. 1 seed Aryna Sabalenka and No. 3 seed Jessica Pegula will write the 14th chapter of their rivalry while new World No. 1 Elena Rybakina battles No. 4 seed Coco Gauff for the second time in three tournaments.
Ahead of Thursday's night session semifinals, here's the case for each of the final four.
History made
Thursday's semifinals will mark the second time in the Open Era that the top four women's seeds have advanced to the US Open semifinals, following 1975 (No. 1 Chris Evert, No. 2 Virginia Wade, No. 3 Martina Navratilova, No. 4 Evonne Goolagong Cawley).
It's also the first time this has occurred at any Grand Slam since Wimbledon in 2009 (No. 1 Dinara Safina, No. 2 Serena Williams, No. 3 Venus Williams, No. 4 Elena Dementieva).
Sabalenka vs. Pegula
Head-to-head: Sabalenka leads 9-4
Last meeting: Pegula def. Sabalenka 6-4, 6-7 (4), 6-0 at 2026 Berlin semifinals
Last hard-court meeting: Sabalenka def. Pegula 4-6, 6-2, 6-3 at 2025 WTA Finals Riyadh group stage
The case for Sabalenka: The quest for the three-peat at Flushing Meadows is going accordingly to plan for Sabalenka, who has recorded her best result since reaching the semifinals at Berlin. For her standards, many of her recent results have not been up to far, but Sabalenka has found a new rhythm and consistent form in New York.
After four straight sets wins to begin the tournament, she passed a difficult test in Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova, who Sabalenka overcame a third-set break and won in the super tiebreak. Despite the frustrations in the match, Sabalenka seemed to have regain composure, play her game more freely and escape with the win.
Her biggest key thus far has been blocking the outside noise. She's focused on her own process and hasn't put too much thought on the No. 1 ranking -- which is no longer hers -- or the perception of her game in recent tournaments. She's simply focused on the three-peat. That's something she learned when she had the chance to three-peat at the Australian Open, and though she couldn't achieve it in Melbourne, the lessons have been taken into account here.
"I'm just super happy that I put myself in the position where I have chance to go for three-peat, even though I'm still far away from that," Sabalenka said. "What I learned from Australia is it's really important to shut down all of the noises and having that on the back of your mind. It's nothing wrong about that, just as long as you're focusing on yourself, as long as you're ready to fight, basically."
The case for Pegula: Pegula's stellar summer continues. After finals in Washington and Cincinnati, Pegula is through to her third straight US Open semifinal still in search of winning that coveted first Grand Slam. It hasn't been the smoothest of paths for Pegula, who went three-sets with 2021 finalist Leylah Fernandez in the third round, but that's expected in a Grand Slam. Tuesday, she edged out fellow American Emma Navarro in a gritty, back-and-forth three-set win, her 50th this season on the WTA Tour Driven by Mercedes-Benz.
Though Sabalenka's summer hasn't been to the level as Pegula's, Pegula is not surprised to see Sabalenka's success at the US Open and she's ready for the latest installment of their rivalry. Their rivalry is what motivates her. Pegula and Sabalenka's last four matchups have gone to a decider, with each taking two apiece.
"I think for me, I'm going to try to pull what I did well from those few matches, but then also be aware that she's a top player," Pegula said. "Her and her team I feel like do a really great job of looking at what they need to improve, what other players are doing against her."
"It's fun to look at the rivalry we've had. She's gotten me here the last couple of years. I have been able to beat her a few times, maybe on a smaller stage, so I think that's going to be kind of a hurdle for me to get over."
Rybakina vs. Gauff
Head-to-head: Tied at 1-1
Last meeting: Rybakina def. Gauff 5-7, 6-2, 6-2 at 2026 Toronto semifinals
The case for Rybakina: The first item on the to-do list was checked off Wednesday as Rybakina's three-set win over Zheng Qinwen secured the Kazakh's seat in the throne of the PIF WTA Rankings -- she's the 30th player to become the World No. 1 since the format was introduced in 1975.
More importantly, the second item on the to-do list is to win the US Open, which would be Rybakina's third Grand Slam. She's been solid so far, and though -- admittedly -- she wasn't sure she'd play the tournament after an injury scare in Cincinnati, Rybakina has looked dominant. Aside from her quarterfinal, she's won all her matches in straight sets, including a powerful victory of two-time US Open champion Naomi Osaka in the fourth round.
"I think from where I was coming to this tournament, being injured and not practicing, I think we came pretty far," Rybakina said Wednesday. "Now [it's] just last pushes and important to still enjoy. Hopefully it's going to go my way."
As for the new World No. 1, Rybakina is grateful for the recognition but she's strictly focusing on the next match.
"It's a different achievement, and I feel like you're going for the titles more, and then ranking, it might follow up, maybe not. Depends on how others play," Rybakina added. "But mostly you think about the titles in the end of the day, and I'm glad I have two right now. I try my best to win here. If not, of course I will have other chances."
The case for Gauff: You can never count Gauff out. Saving two match points vs. Andreeva in the second set tiebreak, Gauff turned the match around and maintained a perfect 6-0 record against the Roland Garros winner. It was her first dropped set after a stretch of 20 consecutive, a testament to the stellar form the 2023 US Open champion has had this summer. She is now tied with Pegula for 12 comeback wins this season.
Coming off a title in Cincinnati, Gauff has always said the goal for the Hard-Court Swing is to peak at the US Open, and she has done just that with a prime position to reach another major final. She'll have to overcome Rybakina in what will be Gauff's seventh Grand Slam semifinal, and though their history is brief, she has the home-crowd advantage and all the weapons to test Rybakina.
More to come...
