Point-counterpoint: Advantage Jabeur or Pegula in the Madrid final?
The marvelously eclectic Ons Jabeur
But for all of her success – last year she and Anett Kontaveit led all WTA players with 48 match-wins – her resume lacks a monster tournament win. On Saturday, in the Mutua Madrid Open final (6:30 p.m. local, 12:30 ET) opposite Jessica Pegula
Entering the 2020 season, Pegula was ranked No.76 and Jabeur was No.77.
Semifinal results: Jabeur overwhelms Alexandrova | Pegula into first WTA 1000 final
“For me and Ons,” Pegula said, “it’s pretty crazy. It shows you what hard work and determination, playing week in and week out and just trying to get better, you can get to the top, as long as you believe it.
On Thursday, in her second career 1000 semifinal, Jabeur took care of scrappy qualifier Ekaterina Alexandrova
How will this championship match play out? WTA Insider Courtney Nguyen and Greg Garber break it down:
Advantage, Jabeur
Jabeur has spent her Madrid fortnight casting out demons. She kept her cool through a scratchy pair of opening matches, where she had to go the distance to beat Jasmine Paolini
As her tournament has rolled on, there has been a sense of destiny in the Tunisian's historic run.
Now comes the toughest test of all, against Pegula in the final. Jabeur is 1-4 in tour finals. All four of her losses came in three sets. In three of the four, she won the first set only to struggle to close out the win.
Asked what her losses have taught her, Jabeur said the key was to leave the court without any regrets.
"The main important thing for me -- I know it's winning the title -- but it's knowing that I gave it all during the match and not regretting that. I know if this one is not coming, then there is another one.
"I keep pushing myself to do better, and the proof is that from Charleston I worked really hard to be in the finals here. I'm going to leave my heart on the court on Saturday."
There’s no doubt Jabeur is playing at a level that deserves the title.
"OK, Ons,” Jabeur said referencing herself, “you said you want to be Top 5, you want to win titles, here it is, the players, champions you are going to play against. Show me what you got.”
Her head-to-head record is dead even against Pegula, but Jabeur has won their past two meetings, at 2021 Chicago and 2022 Dubai. While both women are into the biggest clay-court final of their careers, Jabeur is the more natural clay-courter.
Earlier this week, Jabeur celebrated Eid with her victory over Bencic. In a week in which her beloved Real Madrid booked its spot in the Champions League final with a rousing victory on Wednesday night, it's hard to ignore the momentum building toward a storybook Saturday for Jabeur.
"I want to win this final," Jabeur said. "I'm going to put my heart, my favorite drop shot, my forehand in." -- Courtney Nguyen
Advantage, Pegula
This is what Pegula has been building toward for the past four years. She was ranked outside the Top 100 at the end of the season, but since then she’s made steady progress with her uncompromising flat, aggressive game. Three years ago, she finished No.76, improved to No.62 in 2020 and made the quantum leap to No.18 last November.
And now the 28-year-old American is ready to claim a spot among the sport’s elite. You could see it in her wide smile when she came back from love-30 to close out Teichmann. The Swiss player hadn’t dropped a set, but Pegula found a way to attack her serve and break it four times. She’s produced a tournament-high 27 breaks – and that ought to get Jabeur’s attention.
Pegula, while staying aggressive, picks her spots. She acknowledged that playing Sara Sorribes Tormo
“Especially on the clay,” Pegula said after the match, “I don’t think the serve is as big a weapon. On return games, I’m in every one.”
Her head-to-head record against Jabeur is 2-2, with the most recent result going to Jabeur, 6-3, 6-1 earlier this year in Dubai.
“I watched her yesterday how she was patient with Sara,” Jabeur said. “It’s a tough match. I know she’s playing good today. She’s an aggressive player. I’m going to do what I did in Dubai. Whatever worked for me in Dubai is probably going to work here in the final.”
Ah, but the stakes are far different than they were back in February. The Top 10 is on the line, and if Pegula has demonstrated anything in the past two years, it’s that she’s become a clutch player. In a sense, Pegula is playing with house money in Madrid; she saved match point in a first-round match and ultimately beat Camila Giorgi.
This is the second straight time Pegula has gone deep into a WTA 1000 draw. Two months ago in Miami, she fell to freshly minted World No.1 Iga Swiatek
“We’re both, I think, going to be nervous,” Pegula said. “We’re both going to want to win. We’re going to go out there and compete and have a great match, I hope.” -- Greg Garber
