Gauff or Zheng? Who’s got the edge in the WTA Finals championship match?

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia -- After 55 Hologic WTA Tour tournaments across a sprawling 25 countries -- with 35 different champions -- we’re down to a single match.
It’s 20-year-old Coco Gauff
WTA Finals Riyadh: Scores | Schedule | Standings
WTA Finals championship, Saturday 7 p.m. in Riyadh (11 a.m. ET)
If you were expecting to see No.1 Aryna Sabalenka
Instead, we have the No.3-seeded Gauff opposite No.7 Zheng -- a fun, frothy matchup we could be seeing for another decade. Certainly, there’s a precedent here, for Gauff and Zheng are the youngest pair (42 years, 259 days) to reach the final at the year-end tournament since (wait for it) … 2004, when Serena Williams was 23 and Maria Sharapova only 17 (40 years, 251 days).
“I asked that as soon as I got the match” Gauff said, “I asked `Was this the youngest? It has to be some kind of record.’ I asked the Sky team, what was the answer. They didn’t have it, but that’s good to know.
"It was 2004. The year I was born was the last time, so in my lifetime, basically, I’ve never seen it. That’s pretty cool. It just shows age is a number both ways, old and young.”
Friendly warning: Brace yourself for a raft of those cheesy youth-is-served headlines.
Victoria Chiesa and Greg Garber debate the relative merits of these two precocious finalists:
Advantage, Zheng
After a strong performance defeating Wimbledon champion Barbora Krejcikova
And for good reason. Zheng was coasting against the Wimbledon champion 6-3, 3-0 but admitted she “dropped focus.” Krejcikova would go on to win four straight games. It was the beginning of a spiral that could leave a player frozen.
But not Zheng -- not this Zheng.
"In that moment, I'm not panicked,” the Olympic gold medalist told Krasny.
When you’ve won as much as Zheng has this year, it’s easy to see why there is little cause for concern. Aside from her historic podium-topping Paris performance, Zheng captured two other titles and comes into the last match of the season with 52 wins across all levels this year.
Upon arriving in Riyadh, Zheng said this season has taught her not only about reaching the top -- but what it takes to remain there.
One word to describe Zheng's season: Sensational 💫#WTAFinalsRiyadh pic.twitter.com/bFEqpcgoXu
— wta (@WTA) November 8, 2024
Zheng lost her only previous match to Gauff earlier this year in Rome, falling in the quarterfinals 7-6 (4), 6-1. But based on what she's shown in the back half of the season -- no one has won more matches than Zheng since Wimbledon (31) -- who really knows how it’s going to go?
Zheng likely won’t make the same mistake again. If she shows the composure that’s characterized her Riyadh run, coupled with the same level that’s seen her edge two Wimbledon winners and rout Jasmine Paolini
Advantage, Gauff
Facing the newly minted No.1 year-end player in the world, nearly six years her junior, Gauff was unafraid.
Both players were credited with 14 winners, but Gauff had 20 fewer than Sabalenka’s 47. That’s the kind of pressure Gauff’s defense exerts -- even against Sabalena’s savage groundstrokes. When she’s serving well and consistently from the baseline, she’s tough to beat.
And in the crucible of break points, Gauff was better, converting six of 11, compared to four of 13 for Sabalenka.
THIS CROWD IN RIYADH! 🤩📢@CocoGauff | #WTAFinalsRiyadh pic.twitter.com/MuWOn9QTLN
— wta (@WTA) November 8, 2024
This is the Gauff that so many -- fairly or unfairly -- have been waiting to emerge. In some ways, she’s a victim of her early success; that’s what happens when you reach Wimbledon’s fourth round at the age of 15. After she won her first Grand Slam singles title last year, still a teenager, some people wondered why it didn’t happen again this year.
Gauff is the youngest finalist since Caroline Wozniacki
It’s instructive that since failing to defend her US Open title, losing in the Round of 16 to Emma Navarro
In the opening round, Sabalenka took care of Zheng in straight sets. On Friday night, Gauff did the same to Sabalenka. What will transpire on Saturday night, Victoria? Even I can do that math. -- Greg Garber