Who has the edge in the French Open final? Breaking down Sabalenka vs. Gauff

Aryna Sabalenka

View Profile and Coco Gauff

View Profile have been thisclose in Paris before. On Saturday, one of them will come away with her first Roland Garros title.

After a second semifinal appearance, Sabalenka is through to her first final, while Gauff -- a teenage finalist here three years ago -- is back in the championship match.

Thanks to Sabalenka, four-time champion Iga Swiatek

View Profile won’t get a shot at her fourth straight crown. In a smashing, slashing matchup Thursday, Sabalenka defeated Swiatek 7-6(1), 4-6, 6-0, ending her 26-match win streak (a 1,457-day run) at the French Open.

Gauff cooled off French favorite Lois Boisson

View Profile , 6-1, 6-2, ending the wild card’s wild ride through the draw here.

It’s been seven years since the Nos. 1 and 2 players faced off in a Grand Slam final and a dozen years since it happened at Roland Garros. It’s instructive that all four players involved -- Simona Halep, Caroline Wozniacki

View Profile , Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova -- are all on the sidelines.

For the record, the head-to-head record between Sabalenka and Gauff is a dead even 5-all, one apiece in majors and on clay. Half of the matches went three sets and six of 10 featured tiebreaks. It’s one of the Hologic WTA Tour’s best servers opposite one of the best returners.

Appropriately, they lead all women this year with 17 match-wins on clay.

We make the case for each finalist:

Advantage, Sabalenka

At the moment, there is no better closer.

She was ruthless in the tiebreak, winning seven of eight points. After dropping the second set, Sabalenka managed to make third shockingly anticlimactic, winning all six games and 24 of 30 points -- with zero unforced errors.

Her final service game was over in 80 seconds.

Roland Garros: Draws | Scores

Sabalenka has systematically adapted her power game to the nuances required on clay, and she completed the transformation in jaw-dropping fashion. It had been four years since Swiatek lost a French Open match, and Saturday’s final promises to be a showcase for Sabalenka’s increasingly deft touch.

Despite losing to Madison Keys

View Profile in the Australian Open, Sabalenka is enjoying her best season’s start ever. She’s played 10 tournaments and this is her seventh final, matching last year’s personal best with more than five months to go. Her record is a scorching 40-6.

This is Sabalenka’s third straight Grand Slam singles final, something only four women have achieved this century; Serena Williams last did it nine years ago.

“She played like she didn’t doubt,” Swiatek said later. “She just went for it.”

Expect nothing less against Gauff.

While the head-to-head is even, Sabalenka has won three of the past four matches, including the Madrid final, 6-3, 7-6 (3). Sabalenka likes to strike quickly, and at one point in that first set, she ripped off 17 straight points. Gauff, who sometimes starts slowly, will have to avoid an early letdown.

All three of Sabalenka’s major victories have come on hard courts. She’s more than motivated to finally check off the clay box.

“It’s going to mean everything to me and my team,” she said, “because I have to say that almost like the whole life I've been told [clay] is not my thing and then I didn’t have any confidence. If I’ll be able to get this trophy, it’s just going to mean the world for us.”

Advantage, Gauff 

She’s peaking at just the right time -- and seems genuinely eager to meet the World No. 1.

“She’s going to come out aggressive, she’s going to come out swinging,” Gauff said. “I think I just have to expect that and do my best to kind of counter that. Anything can happen on Saturday. But I’m looking forward to it, and glad to be going up against a World No. 1, too.

Up against an ascendant French player who had won her past two matches over Top 10 players -- in front of a massively partisan French crowd -- Gauff played her best match so far and put … The. Hammer. Down.

The double faults that had plagued Gauff this fortnight all but disappeared. There were only two and Gauff saved four of five break points against her. Tellingly, she won 14 of 20 points on her second serve -- winning half against Sabalenka would be a big win.

She’s been doing this for so long, it easy to forget she turned 21 a few months ago. Gauff has reached the finals of three consecutive tournaments on European clay, winning 16 of 18 matches in the process. She’s the youngest woman to do that in the same calendar year and the youngest player to pile up 70 major match-wins since Maria Sharapova in 2007.

One advantage Gauff has is the way the semifinals played out. Sabalenka invested a great deal of mental and physical energy to beat Swiatek, while Gauff’s win was far less taxing in every respect. Another possibility: It would understandable if Sabalenka were to experience an emotional letdown after that famous victory. She actually suggested as much.

“It felt like a final, but I know that the job is not done yet,” Sabalenka said. “I have to go out there on Saturday, and I have to fight and I have to bring my best tennis, and I have to work for that title, especially if it’s going to be Coco.”

Gauff has come a long way from her first major final, a clinical 6-3, 6-1 loss to Swiatek at 2022 Roland Garros. The next time she got there, Gauff beat Sabalenka in the three-set 2023 US Open final.

“My first final here I was super nervous, and I kind of wrote myself off before the match even happened,” Gauff told reporters. “Obviously, here I have a lot more confidence just from playing a Grand Slam final before and doing well in one. 

“Yeah, I think going into Saturday, I’ll just give it my best shot and try to be as calm and relaxed as possible.”