Top 10 reset: How the WTA’s best are shaping up for the Sunshine Double
We're only two months into the 2025 Hologic WTA Tour season, but plenty of potential narratives are beginning to take shape -- albeit not necessarily the expected ones.
All three champions at the biggest events of the year so far -- Madison Keys
Who's up and who's down? Who has momentum, and who really needs a strong tournament now? Ahead of March's Sunshine Double, we take stock of the year and explore what it means for the WTA 1000s in Indian Wells and Miami.
1. Aryna Sabalenka
Win-loss record: 12-3
Titles: 1 (Brisbane)
Mindful that the calendar is a marathon, Sabalenka lowered expectations ahead of the Middle East.
"I believe I'll just take these two tournaments as a preparation for the Sunshine one, and I'll try to build my tennis," she said before Doha. Her results reflected this: an opening-round loss to Ekaterina Alexandrova
Sabalenka may have been denied an Australian Open three-peat by Keys in this year's final, but her Australian swing was still a success. She looked every inch the world's dominant player as she won her first 11 matches of the year, including the Brisbane title. Her words suggest that Sabalenka is confident she can turn that form back on at will in March. But even if she dialed back her intensity on purpose, those two losses have taken away the air of certainty she carried on her way to the Melbourne final.
2. Iga Swiatek
Win-loss record: 14-4
Titles: 0
Swiatek has made no secret of her goal to dominate hard courts the way she has ruled clay. February was a significant setback. Doha, where she had won the title for three straight years between 2022 and 2024, was about as reliable a bedrock of her hard-court prowess as any -- but a 6-3, 6-1 semifinal trouncing by Jelena Ostapenko
Swiatek has looked formidable at times in 2025. She dropped only 14 games in five matches to reach the Australian Open semifinals and defeated former nemesis Elena Rybakina
3. Coco Gauff
Win-loss record: 9-3
Titles: 0
Gauff kicked off 2025 in strong form, defeating Swiatek on the way to leading the U.S. to a United Cup title before reaching the Australian Open quarterfinals. But then it evaporated with a loss to Paula Badosa
How unusual is that run of form? Put it this way: It's just the second time since 2020 that Gauff has taken three consecutive defeats to players ranked outside the Top 10. (At the start of 2022, she lost to Keys in Adelaide, Wang Qiang at the Australian Open and Jessica Pegula
4. Jessica Pegula
Win-loss record: 13-4
Titles: 1 (Austin)
Since reaching her first Grand Slam final at last year's US Open, Pegula's results have been somewhat middling: a win or two at each tournament but a series of upset losses at the hands of Olga Danilovic
At the WTA 250 in Austin last week, Pegula found her mojo again. She didn't have to face a Top 50 opponent, but she dropped only one set en route to her seventh career title. In contrast to Gauff, Pegula has performed better in Miami (two semifinals and one quarterfinal) than in Indian Wells (one quarterfinal) -- but she should be primed to keep her Austin momentum going on home soil.
5. Madison Keys
Win-loss record: 14-1
Titles: 2 (Adelaide, Australian Open)
Keys' breakthrough at 29, capturing her first Grand Slam title at the Australian Open, was a feel-good moment that has reshaped the story of her career. But she hasn’t played since, pulling out of Doha and Dubai with a hamstring injury. How Keys adjusts to her new status as a major champion could shape the entire season.
Historic comparisons for Keys, the third-oldest first-time Grand Slam winner in the Open Era, are mixed. Angelique Kerber won her first major at 28 years old, and went on to add two more, as well as the World No. 1 ranking. Francesca Schiavone, who was 29 when she won Roland Garros 2010, also put together a career-best stretch over the subsequent 12 months. By contrast, Marion Bartoli (who won Wimbledon 2013 at 28 years old) and Flavia Pennetta (who won the 2015 US Open at 33 years old) were retired within months. But perhaps the best comparison is Jana Novotna, who won Wimbledon in 1998 at 29 after years of near misses. Novotna delivered high-level results over the next year, but two years later had also retired.
6. Jasmine Paolini
Win-loss record: 6-4
Titles: 0
Paolini spent 2024 consistently exceeding expectations -- first with a stunning WTA 1000 title, then a surprise Slam final, and then another. Understandably, there is some doubt she can repeat those feats this year. She failed to defend her Dubai title, though her third-round defeat at the hands of Sofia Kenin
7. Elena Rybakina
Win-loss record: 13-5
Titles: 0
Amid the off-court issues that Rybakina has had to deal with this year, the former Wimbledon champion's form has held up. She has won multiple matches at every tournament she’s played, with her only losses coming against Swiatek or the eventual champion. Most importantly, there’s been no sign of the health issues that have troubled her in the past. A magnificent win from six match points down against Badosa in Dubai showed that her competitive spirit is intact. Rybakina has thrived in the Sunshine Double in the past. She is a former Indian Wells champion and a two-time Miami finalist. Expect to see her back in the latter stages of one or both again.
8. Emma Navarro
Win-loss record: 10-5
Titles: 1 (Merida)
Navarro pulled off a series of great escapes in Melbourne, grinding through four consecutive three-setters to reach the quarterfinals. Was it a mirage? Elsewhere, Navarro fell to Kimberly Birrell
But back in North America last week, Navarro found the form that had lifted her into the Top 10 in 2024. There was no scraping through, and her impressive stamina wasn't tested in Merida. The American eased to her first WTA 500 title for the loss of only 15 games in four matches and looked in command of her game. That's a fine way to round into form as Navarro returns to Indian Wells, where she defeated Sabalenka along the way to her first WTA 1000 quarterfinal last year.
9. Zheng Qinwen
Win-loss record: 1-3
Titles: 0
Zheng ended 2024 on a high, powering her way into the Top 5 by winning Tokyo and reaching the finals of Wuhan and the WTA Finals Riyadh. There's been little sign of that form in 2025, though. She has just one match win under her belt, over No. 110-ranked Anca Todoni
10. Paula Badosa
Win-loss record: 10-7
Titles: 0
Badosa's season has several parallels with Navarro's. Like Navarro, she narrowly avoided an early Australian Open upset and battled her way to a deep run -- in the Spaniard's case, her first major semifinal. Like Navarro, she suffered early upsets elsewhere -- to Elina Avanesyan
Ones to watch outside the Top 10
Mirra Andreeva
Amanda Anisimova
Jelena Ostapenko
Clara Tauson
Karolina Muchova
