Elena Rybakina will have to navigate a draw filled with upset artists and in-form grass-courters as she embarks on her Wimbledon title defense next week.
The No.3 seed will open against Shelby Rogers, who has notched seven Top 10 wins in her career and who has defeated Rybakina twice in five previous meetings. In the second round, she could face Alizé Cornet, whose 25 wins against Top 10 opponents include an upset of Iga Swiatek at Wimbledon 2022 that snapped the World No.1's 37-match winning streak.
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Three of this year's grass-court tournament winners have also landed in Rybakina's quarter: Nottingham champion Katie Boulter, Birmingham champion Jelena Ostapenko and Berlin champion Petra Kvitova. There could also be a rematch of last year's Wimbledon final in the quarterfinals, where Rybakina is projected to face No.6 seed Ons Jabeur.
Our defending champions' first round draw 👇
— Wimbledon (@Wimbledon) June 30, 2023
• Elena Rybakina vs Shelby Rogers
• Novak Djokovic vs Pedro Cachin#Wimbledon pic.twitter.com/nJC6KZfFwF
Swiatek, fresh off a successful Roland Garros title defense, will open against Zhu Lin, while No.2 seed Aryna Sabalenka starts against Panna Udvardy. Sabalenka could face a rematch of the Roland Garros semifinals, where she lost from match point up to Karolina Muchova, in the last 16.
The intriguing opening-round matchups include wild cards between seven-time major champion Venus Williams and Elina Svitolina, who returned from maternity leave in April, and No.7 seed Coco Gauff against former Australian Open champion Sofia Kenin, who successfully came through qualifying this week.
First quarter
Despite being a former Wimbledon junior champion, it's no secret Swiatek feels she has yet to fully work out grass courts. She made her first grass-court semifinal in Bad Homburg this week before pulling out with an illness. The highest-ranked player standing between Swiatek and a first Wimbledon quarterfinal is No.14 seed Belinda Bencic, who withdrew from all her pre-Wimbledon grass warm-ups with an injury.
Swiatek is projected to face No.7 seed Gauff, against whom she has yet to lose a set in seven meetings, in the quarterfinals. Gauff, currently in the Eastbourne semifinals this week, has some intriguing obstacles in her way. Her head-to-head against first-round opponent Kenin is all square at one win apiece, and the 2020 Australian Open champion is in strong form, dropping just 14 games in three qualifying matches.
Gauff could also meet the winner of the Williams-Svitolina matchup in the third round, followed by either No.11 seed Daria Kasatkina or No.19 seed Victoria Azarenka in the fourth round.
First rounds to watch: Martina Trevisan vs. Sara Sorribes Tormo; Linda Fruhvirtova vs. [30] Petra Martic; [28] Elise Mertens vs. [Q] Viktoria Hruncakova; [WC] Venus Williams vs. [WC] Elina Svitolina; [Q] Sofia Kenin vs. [7] Coco Gauff
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Second quarter
No.4 seed Jessica Pegula heads the second quarter, and starts with a familiar opponent in fellow American Lauren Davis, whom she first played in 2012 and has met five times in total, winning the past three.
Pegula is projected to face No.5 seed Caroline Garcia, who was forced to retire because of a shoulder injury in Eastbourne this week, in the quarterfinals. Garcia is one of several big hitters who lurk in this section. Potential fourth-round opponents for Pegula include 2021 Berlin champion Liudmila Samsonova, the No.15 seed, No.24 seed Zheng Qinwen or Alycia Parks, who captured a first WTA title in Lyon this February.
Meanwhile, Garcia could face either 's-Hertogenbosch finalist Veronika Kudermetova, the No.12 seed, or No.20 seed Donna Vekic in the last 16. Before that, the Frenchwoman could face a rematch of her top-quality Australian Open second-round tilt with Leylah Fernandez at the same stage.
Former World No.2 Anett Kontaveit, who is playing the final event of her career, has also been drawn in this quarter. The Estonian will play qualifier Lucrezia Stefanini in the first round.
First rounds to watch: Camila Osorio vs. Elisabetta Cocciaretto; [24] Zheng Qinwen vs. Katerina Siniakova; Alycia Parks vs. Anna-Lena Friedsam; [12] Veronika Kudermetova vs. Kaia Kanepi; Anett Kontaveit vs. [Q] Lucrezia Stefanini
Third quarter
Arguably the most stacked section of the draw, the third quarter sets last year's finalists, No.3 Rybakina and No.6 Jabeur, on course for a rematch as early as the quarterfinals. Not that either have smooth routes to even get there.
If Rybakina, who was forced to withdraw from Eastbourne this week, survives Rogers and Cornet in the first two rounds, home hope and recent first-time titlist Boulter could await in the third round.
Potential fourth-round opponents include No.13 seed Beatriz Haddad Maia, who won the first two titles of her career on grass last year and who is fresh off her first major semifinal at Roland Garros, No.17 seed Jelena Ostapenko, a perennial threat on grass who captured her sixth career title in Birmingham last week or the tricky slice-and-dice test of last year's semifinalist Tatjana Maria. Ostapenko, who lost to Maria in the fourth round last year, could face the German mother of two in the second round this year.
Jabeur opens against Magdalena Frech, fresh off back-to-back quarterfinals in Nottingham and Birmingham, and could face either No.26 seed Anhelina Kalinina or former US Open champion Bianca Andreescu in the third round. The Tunisian's projected fourth-round opponent is No.9 seed and two-time Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova, who comes into this year's tournament on a five-match winning streak after winning her second title of 2023 in Berlin last week.
First rounds to watch: [6] Ons Jabeur vs. Magdalena Frech; [18] Karolina Pliskova vs. [Q] Natalija Stevanovic; [13] Beatriz Haddad Maia vs. Yulia Putintseva; Sorana Cirstea vs. Tatjana Maria; Shelby Rogers vs. [3] Elena Rybakina
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Fourth quarter
This year, Australian Open champion Sabalenka has paired her formidable power with week-in, week-out consistency. She has reached at least the quarterfinals of eight of her 10 tournaments so far in 2023 -- although she did suffer a second-round exit in Berlin to Kudermetova last week.
Sabalenka, whose best Wimbledon performance to date was her 2021 semifinal run, could have a chance for revenge in the fourth round. No.16 seed Muchova, who denied her from match point down in the Roland Garros semifinals, is her projected opponent. The Czech is a two-time Wimbledon quarterfinalist but has not played since the Roland Garros final.
Before that, the big-hitting Camila Giorgi lurks for Sabalenka in the second round. Muchova will have to navigate past last year's quarterfinalist Jule Niemeier in the first round and potentially two-time 's-Hertogenbosch champion Ekaterina Alexandrova, the No.21 seed, in the third round. Rising 18-year-old Linda Noskova is also one to watch. The Czech, who could face compatriot Muchova in the second round, only played her first grass-court tournament last week in Birmingham but has all the tools to excel on the surface with more experience.
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No.8 seed Maria Sakkari is Sabalenka's projected quarterfinal opponent. The Greek player is bidding to reach the quarterfinals of a Slam for the first time since the 2021 US Open and will open against talented Ukrainian Marta Kostyuk. No.10 seed Barbora Krejcikova, fresh off the Birmingham final last week, is a potential fourth-round opponent for Sakkari. However, the 2021 Roland Garros champion has a tough test of her own to get through. Krejcikova could face 16-year-old sensation Mirra Andreeva, who successfully passed through qualifying at the first attempt, in the second round.
First rounds to watch: [8] Maria Sakkari vs. Marta Kostyuk; [Q] Viktorija Golubic vs. Anna Karolina Schmiedlova; [22] Anastasia Potapova vs. [Q] Celine Naef; [Q] Mirra Andreeva vs. Wang Xiyu; [WC] Heather Watson vs. [10] Barbora Krejcikova; [16] Karolina Muchova vs. Jule Niemeier; Madison Brengle vs. Sara Errani; [Q] Yanina Wickmayer vs. Anna Blinkova
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