Doha final four: Breaking down the semis at the year's first WTA 1000 event

We’re down to the final four at this year's first WTA 1000 event, the Qatar TotalEnergies Open.

Friday's two semifinals have remarkably similar storylines: Two players at the very top of the Hologic WTA Tour, opposite a pair of 30-something athletes in the midst of stirring comebacks.

World No.1 Iga Swiatek -- looking for a rare three-peat in Doha -- meets Karolina Pliskova, a former World No.1. Meanwhile, No.3 seed Elena Rybakina, seeking her Tour-leading 15^th victory of the season, faces the ageless Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.

Let’s dive into these matchups, starting at 5:00 p.m. local time (9:00 a.m. ET).

No.1 Iga Swiatek vs. Karolina Pliskova

Swiatek leads the head-to-head 3-0

The case for Swiatek

There’s a reason she’s been the top-ranked player for 90 weeks -- her ability to reset swiftly; to look forward, not behind.

After losing to teenager Linda Noskova in the third round of the Australian Open, Swiatek is resetting again in Doha. In three matches, she’s dropped a total of 11 games, and four of her sets featured one lost game or none.

“I always feel like the season is long and you have plenty of chances in later tournaments,” Swiatek said of her disappointment in Melbourne. “So I’ll just work hard and do my best and we’ll see what’s going to come after that.”

The most recent conquest was Victoria Azarenka, another two-time champion here. Swiatek defeated Azarenka 6-4, 6-0, but there was a moment in the first set when things were quite fluid. Serving at 3-4, Swiatek faced a break point. It was erased with a big serve, a heavy cross-court forehand and a backhand winner.

Swiatek won the last nine games and vaulted into her 12^th WTA 1000 semifinal -- in 25 main-draw appearances. Yes, there’s been a startling quality in her efforts at this level. Swiatek has won 70 of her 88 WTA 1000 matches, for a win percentage of .795. If you’re scoring at home, only Serena Williams (.841) was better since the format was introduced in 2009.

Swiatek said she’s not putting any pressure on herself to win the Doha title for the third time in a row.

“Honestly, I learned from last year that there is no point on focusing on defending anything, so it’s a totally different chapter and totally different story,” she said. “So I’m going to take it step by step and not really think about what happened last year or two years ago, because we are all at different points in our lives.”

The case for Pliskova

This is starting to feel surreal: Pliskova’s match against Swiatek will be her 10^th in 11 days, going back to her recent title at the Transylvania Open. She’s won nine straight. How’s that for a player who stepped away from tennis in mid-September to catch her breath?

She turns 32 next month and has played 11 sets in four matches this week. Her quarterfinal match against Naomi Osaka was the first one that didn’t go the distance -- but the final score was 7-6(6), 7-6(5).

Pliskova won when she converted her fourth match point, and the fact that it was over in 103 minutes tells you how hard-hitting it was. Both players finished with 86 points won.

Regarding that 0-3 head-to-head against Swiatek, their two most recent encounters came last year, and both had competitive starts. Pliskova took the first set before losing in Stuttgart, and in Montreal, the first set came down to a tiebreak.

“It’s semifinal, you don’t expect to play an easy player,” Pliskova said afterward. “I will have nothing to lose. I will have to play well, go for my shots. Hopefully there’s going to be a small chance.

“If it’s windy, I think it’s going to be [an advantage] for my side.”

No.3 Elena Rybakina vs. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova

Pavlyuchenkova leads the head-to-head 1-0

The case for Rybakina

While the ongoing race for World No.1 between Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka has occupied tennis fans, for the past year Rybakina has been better at the WTA 1000s. She’s won 28 of these elite-level matches in that span of time, more than anyone else. Since 2023, only she and Swiatek have been to six of these semifinals.

Does Rybakina see herself at No.1 this year or next?

“Of course I wish [it's] going to happen one day, but still too early to say anything,” she told reporters after defeating Leylah Fernandez 6-4, 6-2. “I’m really happy with the way I play now. I think it’s still not my best, and there is a lot of things to improve for me.

“Hopefully it’s going to happen if not this year, next year.”

Rybakina trailed Fernandez 4-2 in the first set on Thursday, but reversed her fortunes and is now 14-2 for the season. That record might be even better if she hadn’t suffered an illness at the Australian Open that she said lingered for 10 days.

While the courts in Doha are slower than most hardcourts, Rybakina has hit 23 aces in three matches and was the second to crack the 100 mark for 2024, following Pliskova. After taking last week's title in Abu Dhabi, she’s won seven consecutive matches.

The case for Pavlyuchenkova

A year ago, Pavlyuchenkova was ranked No.844, coming off a knee injury that cost her seven months. And now, after a 7-5, 6-4 victory over Danielle Collins, she is projected to land inside the WTA Tour Top 25 when the rankings are updated next week.

Did we mention that she’s 32 years old, and the third-oldest semifinalist in Qatar Open history after Venus Williams and Svetlana Kuznetsova?

Was there a point where Pavlyuchenkova considered retirement?

“No, because I’m a fighter,” she said, smiling. “I wanted to give myself a bit more time, and I actually wanted to be nicer to myself. And then I’m very stubborn, so glad that I didn’t stop then.”

Pavlyuchenkova is playing terrific tennis, channeling her resurgent 2021 season when she reached the finals at Roland Garros. Previously this week, she knocked off No.6 seed Marketa Vondrousova and No.11 Daria Kasatkina.

This is the fourth WTA 1000 semifinal for Pavlyuchenkova; the first came 15 years ago at Indian Wells. Here’s why she can’t be counted out to make her first WTA 1000 final: On her way to that final in Paris, she beat Rybakina in their first and only meeting. The result was a spectacular 6-7(2), 6-2, 9-7 victory for Pavlyuchenkova.